Alexandre Muller vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, August 2nd

The second preview for Friday comes from the San Marino Tennis Open on the ATP Challenger Tour where we look at Alexandre Muller vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo.

Cerundolo’s win probability comes in at just under 40%, while Muller is favoured to win at 1.54 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 21.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Muller vs Cerundolo prediction is for Muller to cover the handicap.

Alexandre Muller vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Prediction

• Prediction: Muller -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.89
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds updated at 9:30 pm UK Time on August 1st, 2024. 

Another situation where I simply can’t have these two so closely priced. One is a borderline ATP Tour level player and the other has plenty of success, but almost all of it has come in weaker fields on the Challenger Tour.

Cerundolo’s game is based on his rigid solidity from the baseline, but the match is almost never on his racquet. Muller, on the other hand, used to be just like that, but has added more and more to his serve and forehand in recent years and has managed to keep that consistency that has made him so tough.

When we go over the Cerundolo form, we’ll see that once adjusted for quality of competition, he’s really just a mediocre Challenger Tour guy who beats a lot of the inferior opposition you’d expect him to, while scheduling well on his home continent to pick up points. I don’t think he poses as much of a threat here, even though he does tend to like a bit of altitude to help bolster his game.

---

Alexandre Muller Recent Form

Muller has played some decent tennis this year, but has also had his fair share of struggles. Now, the most obvious caveat to the second part of the prior sentence is that he has faced most of his trials and tribulations at the ATP level against the likes of Casper Ruud, Nicolas Jarry and Daniil Medvedev. Understandable.

Muller has evolved to the point that his game is pretty well balanced. He won’t be hitting through most players at the top level of the game, but he’s also not going to be a bystander in any match, especially at this level. In this particular match, I don’t think there’s any doubt that he’s the one that will be looking to play front foot tennis more often.

He’s looked strong this week in dispatching Remy Bertola and Giovanni Fonio in four sets and he’s surely one of the favourites to win the title here.

---

Juan Manuel Cerundolo Recent Form

Let’s look at Cerundolo’s 29-17 clay court record in splits, as I think that illustrates his level pretty well based on quality of competition.

At Challenger tournaments in South America (where draws tend to be a bit lighter in terms of talent), the 22-year-old lefty is 19-7 with two titles in Lima and Santz Cruz. Shift the setting to European clay and things look different. In events with much tougher fields, the Argentine is just 9-10, including his two wins in San Marino this week.

Those came against fellow underpowered South American Gonzalo Bueno and a pretty washed up Marco Cecchinato.

Now he’s playing someone that has made his way into the world’s top-100, has a better offensive game and has spent more time this season on the main tour.

The two saving graces for the man known to his fans as “Juanma”? He has had success against Muller before, and he has done well in altitude, where his game doesn’t look as underpowered as normal.

---

Alexandre Muller vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo H2H – Stat of the Match

Cerundolo won both prior meetings, though those came back in 2021 and 2022. Muller’s game has improved a lot since then and he’s raised his ranking by over 100 places since the most recent encounter between them.

---

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.