tennis | Monday, January 30, 2023 9:40 AM (Revised at: Monday, January 30, 2023 12:32 PM)

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Koblenz, Alexandre Muller vs Max Hans Rehberg

Jon Reid

Alexandre Muller vs Max Hans Rehberg Best Bet: Monday, January 30th

Tough go with Radu Albot on Friday, as he couldn’t manage a single break point and won just 14 points in 11 return games plus a tiebreak. Against a heavy-topspin player without many weapons, no less. Perhaps the decline in ranking is, indeed, indicative of a player in the twilight of his career.

Onto a new week, as we have a fresh slate of Challenger events to pour over (the tour is off for the week, as the Davis Cup qualifiers take place this weekend in several host countries). For Monday’s selection, we look to the event in Koblenz, Germany and the match between Alexandre Muller and Max Hans Rehberg.

In this article:

Alexandre Muller vs Max Hans Rehberg Preview
Alexandre Muller vs Max Hans Rehberg Best Bet

Alexandre Muller vs Max Hans Rehberg Preview

January 30th, 14:30 (UK Time)

It’s a clash of just about everything in this first rounder. A player in on direct acceptance against a wild card. A power-focused style that is relatively unpolished taking on an incredibly consistent game style. A young gun against a veteran.

Rehberg has yet to really break through at this level, but there’s no doubt that he has the ability to ball. The key to his development at this point is turning that big, aggressive game style into a more controlled aggression that will allow his game to be far more sustainable.

The nice thing for him here is that he’ll be playing on home soil with a supportive crowd and the courts will be quick, which will help him keep the points nice and short, avoiding prolonged rallies that are more likely to end in unforced errors.

If we look back at the last edition of the event – held three years ago – we can see the quarterfinals littered with big hitting and serving, quick-court specialist type players like Ruben Bemelmans, Yannick Maden and Daniel Masur, as well as players that are now well-established that can also rip from the baseline like Tomas Machac.

That bodes well for Rehberg, as it shows his style has been more well-suited to the conditions. I don’t think someone like Muller, who has had a topsy-turvy start to the year and who doesn’t possess a ton of power, should be afforded this kind of respect.

Alexandre Muller vs Max Hans Rehberg Best Bet

For having a more consistent game style and a record this season that has seen both impressive wins and head-scratching losses, I simply can’t agree with Muller being priced as an overwhelming favourite.

Sure, Rehberg’s talent is still unrefined, but his power is unquestionable and the fact he’s on these courts should help him minimise the unforced error count.

It’s tough to really quantify home-court advantage, but for a teenager playing up on the Challenger Tour, it sure can’t hurt to have the support of the crowd to help settle your nerves.

Rehberg’s price is a tad too long here, and I’m happy to back him against Muller. The over isn’t the worst look, either, but considering how hit-or-miss he can be, if he’s committing errors at an elevated rate, it’s tough to see how this one gets over 22 games in a loss, so I’ll stick with the higher odds play.