tennis | Tuesday, January 31, 2023 8:58 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, January 31, 2023 8:59 AM)

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Koblenz, Antoine Escoffier vs Marko Topo

Jon Reid

Antoine Escoffier vs Marko Topo Best Bet: Tuesday, January 31st

Tough go with Max Hans Rehberg on Monday, as he lost to Alexandre Muller, who might be one of the week’s main beneficiaries of courts that were – surprisingly – not as quick as I had anticipated.

Tuesday’s bet from the men’s action will once again be from Koblenz, and I’ll be going back to the well backing a young German talent on home soil against someone who is a strong player, but a tad overvalued for me as Marko Topo takes on Antoine Escoffier.

In this article:

Antoine Escoffier vs Marko Topo Preview
Antoine Escoffier vs Marko Topo Best Bet

Antoine Escoffier vs Marko Topo Preview

January 31st, 13:00 (UK Time)

In what is hopefully a better outcome this time around, we have a match with a young, local player that is being undervalued in Koblenz.

As much of a hard-court specialist as Escoffier is, unlike his compatriot on Monday who benefits from the courts being a bit slower than expected, the big server prefers quicker conditions, where he can rack up points using that first serve and find holds of serve with rather ease and regularity.

Considering he’s not the best mover (and I can’t see that getting better here, considering he retired after a physical battle in Thailand approximately a week and a half ago), or returner, the slightly slower courts could certainly play a role here.

Even if they aren’t on the slower side as it appeared on the first day of main draw play, he’s still probably overvalued. Not just because he retired in his last match, but because outside of the serve and forehand, his game lacks dynamism, and when we look at a statistical comparison of these two, the teenager actually stacks up pretty well with Escoffier.

For starters, in the last year of hard-court play, Topo actually boasts a higher ace rate, first serves landed rate, second serve points won percentage, service hold rate and is under two percent behind the veteran Frenchman in first serve points won and break percentage.

With a strong game that plays well across a few surfaces, I think we’re just seeing a case of the market not being familiar with the kid’s game and that presents an opportunity to exploit a poor price here.

Antoine Escoffier vs Marko Topo Best Bet

I’m happy to back the young gun to keep this one close, considering the fact that these Rebound Ace courts actually appear to be playing a bit slower than anticipated (odd for a German Challenger event indoors). He’s got a strong serve, and while he may start slow in his first match of the year, statistically he isn’t far behind the Frenchman in terms of the aforementioned data.

The fact that Escoffier is coming off a retirement in the third set of his last match against someone that is no hard-court aficionado is also concerning. That happened less than two weeks ago, and if it impacts Escoffier in any way, he could be in trouble against one of Germany’s better young players. I’ll also take a small position backing the 19-year-old to go on and win the match outright.