Arantxa Rus vs Tatjana Maria Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 6th

The main draw is finally here at one of the biggest tournaments of the season. In fact, the BNP Paribas Open is colloquially referred to as the “fifth slam” and draws all the best players every season. Let’s open up the main draw with our Arantxa Rus vs Tatjana Maria prediction from the WTA draw.

Maria’s win probability is 47.8% while Rus is favoured to win at 1.81 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 21.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Rus vs Maria prediction is for Rus to win.

In this article:

• Arantxa Rus vs Tatjana Maria Prediction
• Arantxa Rus Recent Form
• Tatjana Maria Recent Form
• Arantxa Rus vs Tatjana Maria H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Arantxa Rus vs Tatjana Maria Prediction

• Prediction: Rus to win
• Best Odds: 1.81
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on March 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Of all the matches for the first round taking place on Wednesday, I have this as one of the tilts that presents the most value.

Sure, Maria is probably the more natural hard courter, but outside of her first serve (which may be less effective given the grittier nature of these courts), there isn’t much that should trouble Rus.

Her slices won’t be as effective against someone with rally tolerance and on higher bouncing courts, Rus isn’t the swiftest player out there getting around the court, but it’s not exactly a weakness for the 33-year-old either.

I’ll back Rus as an incredibly cheap favourite in a match I think she’d be very disappointed to lose.

Read on for more expert insights.

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Arantxa Rus Recent Form

It’s been a pretty strong season for the Dutchwoman to 2024. One may look at the record and opine that her first few months haven’t been great since she’s just 6-6 in terms of wins and losses, but all six losses have come against players currently ranked inside the top 65 and half of those came in three sets.

Not too bad for a player more known for her clay court prowess. Her first serve has been working pretty well, the spin on her second serves has rendered them slightly less vulnerable and she’s started taking her inside-out forehands more aggressively to add more offence to her gameplan on hard courts.

Factor in that topspin is more relevant here than most hard courts – something that Rus plays with plenty of – and that Rus matches up well with Maria, while also being the superior player, and I have her as a much larger favourite in this match.

Tatjana Maria Recent Form

On the flip side, we have Maria, who has a similar record (6-7, rather than 6-6) to start the year, but will likely be more disappointed with that total for a few reasons than Rus with her 6-6 record.

As always, context is everything. Maria is first and foremost a hardcourt player. Losing more matches on the surface than she’s winning isn’t the greatest in that regard. She’s also lost to a much lower calibre of player, with many defensive, consistency-oriented players beating her, and beating her badly.

She won just one game against Viktoriya Tomova, and one game against Sara Errani and lost by a wide margin to Jasmine Paolini and Katie Volynets as well.

Even a pair of her wins came thanks to injuries to Canadian Leylah Fernandez and Nadia Podoroska.

With a slice-heavy game that leaves way too much air under her shots, it’s hard to see how she troubles better players and those who won’t commit errors. I don’t trust her with her track record this year and think the market is still overvaluing some of the wins she racked up against weaker fields in 2023.

Arantxa Rus vs Tatjana Maria H2H – Stat of the Match

Maria leads the series 3-1, but we haven’t seen these two play in nearly a decade. The last encounter was in 2015 at an ITF event and two of the matches took place in 2010. Hardly meaningful matches.

I think the best way to look at this match is by asking whether or not Rus can deal with the slice-and-dice type game of Maria. Considering the slices are likely to sit up on the higher bouncing courts, Rus plays with plenty of spin to add to her margin for error and is a better slower court player herself.

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.