Matteo Arnaldi vs Chris O’Connell Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/25/24

Our first preview from the ATP side of the draw at the Mutua Madrid Open looks at Matteo Arnaldi vs Chris O’Connell. Our Arnaldi vs O’Connell prediction is below!

O’Connell’s win probability is only 31.3% while Arnaldi is favored to win at 1.40 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Arnaldi vs O’Connell Prediction

• Prediction: Over 22 Games
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on April 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I know that Arnaldi is one of the better up-and-coming prospects out there and I’m as big on his combination of offensive and defensive tennis as anyone, but I also think O’Connell deserves a bit more respect than he’s getting in this matchup.

He’s got a strong enough serve that I believe is often underrated and he is capable of playing some incredibly intelligent tennis that is all too uncommon in the era of power-centric tennis. Our Arnaldi vs O’Connell prediction is for the match to go over 22 games.

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Matteo Arnaldi Recent Form

After a mediocre start to his 2024 campaign, the Italian has been finding his groove of late. An early exit in Monte Carlo from a setup against Sumit Nagal is certainly a blemish on his record, but other than that, he’s only lost to a trio of top-15 players and Tomas Machac who, for whatever reason, seems to have his number.

His serve and forehand are fairly strong shots that can dictate and find quick points, but his court coverage and defending stand out to me more and more every time I cover one of his matches.

The all-around game is one that I think is going to take him places, but much like another ascending player in Fabian Marozsan, there are still times when his strong hitting with excellent depth turns into hitting that sees the ball sail long.

Those kinds of mistakes and errors should clean themselves up over time, and when they do I expect him to make moves on the men’s tour.

For now, those bouts of inconsistency mixed in with strong play can be beneficial to betting overs.

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Chris O’Connell Recent Form

O’Connell also has a penchant for seeing his level swing within matches. When he’s landing his first serve, he plans out his next two or three shots so well and racks up service holds.

When it’s not landing, he finds himself under more pressure and the errors start to pile up from the baseline as well. Erratic play also makes it much tougher to apply pressure in opposition service games.

That kind of volatile play lends itself well to overs, much like the occasionally inconsistent play of Arnaldi.

Another positive here is that I don’t think the pace of Arnaldi’s groundstrokes is overwhelming enough to rush that one-handed backhand of the Aussie.

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Matteo Arnaldi vs Chris O’Connell H2H – Stat of the Match

O’Connell won the only prior meeting between these two on the clay courts of Split, Croatia. Even though that match was on clay, it was two years ago, and Arnaldi’s development since then has been rather impressive, meaning I don’t think he’s the same player as he was when he was taken out by O’Connell in straight sets.

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