Aslan Karatsev vs Cristian Garin Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 29th

The new week brings the Olympics Games, as well as the ATP 500 level event in Washington, D.C. Without much value to find in Paris, let’s look at Aslan Karatsev vs Cristian Garin in a matchup of two guys looking to find some form at the Mubadala Citi DC Open. Our Karatsev vs Garin prediction is available below.

Garin’s win probability comes in at around 42.5%, with Karatsev the favourite at 1.65 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Aslan Karatsev vs Cristian Garin Prediction: Back Strong Hard Courter

• Prediction: Karatsev to win
• Best Odds: 1.66
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 2:30 am UK Time on July 29th, 2024. 

I think the primary reason we’re seeing Karatsev priced as a slight favourite rather than a large one is due to the spotty form we’ve seen from him in recent months since he returned from a fairly prolonged injury absence.

We’ll go over that form in a minute, but to put it simply, I don’t think he’s played as poorly as his recent losing record would indicate.

Karatsev has a big, aggressive game style and is far more comfortable on quicker hard courts than Garin. I certainly think that having him down around 61% is a tad low and that there’s plenty of room to bet on the more hard court proficient player in this matchup at the current price.

Besides, it’s not as though the Chilean is tearing up the competition either.

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Aslan Karatsev Recent Form

I alluded to the poor run of form Karatsev has found himself in above. That comes in the form (no pun intended) of a 2-7 record since returning to action in Madrid.

That said, let’s look at some of the losses. First, a super close match against an ascendant young gun, Fabian Marozsan, in two tiebreaks. He also has a five set defeat to Alexander Shevchenko – another talented young gun – at the French Open, a four set loss (via retirement) to top-20 player Karen Khachanov at Wimbledon, a deciding set loss on grass to quick-court specialist James Duckworth and then a loss in three sets last week against a very strong opponent in Frances Tiafoe.

There are a lot of top tier players on the list of those that have beaten him and many of them needed close contests to do it.

Give him a more manageable opponent, who himself isn’t playing well, and give him the edge in terms of surface and court speed and he should be a bigger favourite, regardless of the recent losses.

Cristian Garin Recent Form

Since reaching the semifinals in Munich all the way back in April, it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the world No. 106 either.

He lost early in the five tournaments after Munich, qualified for Wimbledon before losing in the opening round of the main draw and lost his most recent match – a clay court tilt in Sweden.

He hasn’t played a hard court match in over four months, and if you’re someone who believes in surface changes requiring time to adjust within a match, that’s not a good thing either.

I’m not huge on his game on quicker surfaces, despite a decent serve and a weird knack for success on grass, though. His forehand isn’t hit hard enough and is a bit too reliant on topspin for me to believe he can transition it to a quicker court where power and flatter hitting are rewarded far more.

Aslan Karatsev vs Cristian Garin H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played once on a hard court with Garin winning. The caveat? The match took place….seven years ago at a Challenger in Thailand. Call me crazy, but I’m not putting too much stock in that one.

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