tennis | Tuesday, November 8, 2022 8:32 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, November 8, 2022 8:33 AM)

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Roanne, Arthur Fils vs Adrian Andreev

Jon Reid

Arthur Fils vs Adrian Andreev Best Bet: Tuesday, November 8th

Nice start to the week on the men’s side of things. Some good fortune came our way, as what looked to be a 1-1 finish for slight profit on the match ended up with Lucas Gerch blowing his second set lead long enough to get it to a tiebreak so the over 22 games selection hit as well!

For Tuesday’s selection, we’ll head to the indoor hard-court Challenger in Roanne, France and look at the match between up-and-comers Arthur Fils and Adrian Andreev.

In this article:

Arthur Fils vs Adrian Andreev Preview
Arthur Fils vs Adrian Andreev Best Bet

Arthur Fils vs Adrian Andreev Preview

November 8th, 11:30 UK Time

After a few years of building up his professional ranking on clay courts, Andreev has found more success on hard courts during the 2022 season than he had in all previous pro seasons combined.

It’s taken him time to develop a more powerful game, but the hard work has paid off. His ace rate is up from under 2% to nearly 5%, while he’s winning far more points behind both his first and second serves, as well. The result? A hold rate nearing 80%, up over 12% (at Challenger and main tour level) on hard courts this season.

With the athleticism that helped him succeed in years past on clay, along with an improved and far less vulnerable serve, Andreev has become a player that’s not nearly as easy to beat on quicker surfaces.

That said, there are some times when he can be outhit and overpowered. That’s resulted in him playing eight three-setters in 10 matches on hard courts since getting back to playing on them this fall.

As for Fils, he’s one heck of a young talent, but his game is about as raw as they’ll come. Considering he’s just 18 years old, that’s understandable. Equipped with a huge serve, big forehand and power to dictate against just about anyone, Fils has patches of play where he looks positively formidable.

On the flip side, however, is the inability to play with the controlled aggression that is crucial to succeeding at the higher levels of the game. That has led to other stretches of play where he’s looked positively lost on the court, especially against players that can extend points enough to wait out the unforced errors. The result? A slew of matches that go three sets or and/or feature a tiebreak.

Arthur Fils vs Adrian Andreev Best Bet

I’m not the most trend-based bettor, but when you can explain the reasoning behind a trend and see value in the betting markets associated with those trends, I see no problem looking to attack the poor numbers and prices.

In slight altitude (about 280 metres) and in quicker conditions, I’m not sure why a match between two decent servers, who have contrasting styles and who both have a propensity to play long matches, why this total games market is set at a flat 22 games and relatively cheaply priced at 1.91.

Most men’s matches in quicker indoor conditions see a minimum of 22.5 games in the total games market and I wouldn’t have been surprised to see this particular match at 23 games. Plenty of value here to look to exploit.