Thursday Tennis Bonus Best Bet: ATP Challenger Helsinki, Maximilian Marterer vs Leandro Riedi
Maximilian Marterer vs Leandro Riedi Best Bet: Thursday, November 17th
It was tough sledding for Reka-Luca Jani in Argentina, as she only managed to convert two of her 12 break point chances, as she fell in straight sets to American Ann Li.
For Thursday, we head back to doubling up on the men’s previews, as the oddsmakers didn’t have odds posted for any of the Buenos Aires 125K matches less than 12 hours before action was set to begin from the Argentinian capital.
So, it’ll be the Helsinki Challenger and the match between Maximilian Marterer and Leandro Riedi that we take a look at in this article.
In this article:
Maximilian Marterer vs Leandro Riedi Preview
November 17th, 13:00 UK Time
In a match that features two big men that should benefit from playing on a relatively quick indoor hard court, this matchup should really come down to who is the more likely of the two to apply pressure more often to his opponent’s serve.
For me, the answer to that question is Marterer, for a few reasons.
Firstly, the big German has a bit more to his game and stylistically has a particular matchup edge he can exploit, all while being able to match Riedi’s strengths.
Where both should find their fair share of free points behind their first serves, Marterer’s game from the baseline is far more developed at this point than his Swiss opponent’s. With a few more years at this level under his belt, the ability to play his forehand with some spin and margin for error in longer rallies and a more well-rounded baseline game, I trust Marterer to win far more of the points that feature prolonged rallies, thus giving him an advantage in my books. Riedi plays a very flat ball, which on a quicker court is rewarded when it is hitting its spots as it takes away time from the opposition, but when the ball is clearing the net so narrowly if things go awry, the unforced errors into the net can pile up.
Then there’s the fact that Marterer’s powerful left-handed game matches up perfectly with Riedi’s pretty poor backhand wing. Not only can the 27-year-old look to target the backhand with his big serves, but the crosscourt rallies will allow him to pick on that backhand with his forehand. Pinning Riedi to that shot should yield results for Marterer. It may also force Riedi to look to end points more quickly by looking to hit low-percentage shots in search for winners.
Finally, form-wise Riedi has beaten some fellow up-and-comers this week in qualifying and in the opening round, but he has yet to play anyone of Marterer’s calibre, and entering this event, he’d looked really poor since August. Marterer, on the other hand, has found some success since returning to the indoor courts in Europe, reaching the quarterfinals last week in Bratislava (losing only to an ATP Tour level player in Marton Fucsovics who ended up winning the event) and looking good in his opening match against Elias Ymer, who on his day is a quality Challenger Tour level player.
Maximilian Marterer vs Leandro Riedi Best Bet
Whether it be the more solid baseline game, having a distinct matchup advantage, being more experienced or being in better form, Marterer is simply the better player in this one.
On an indoor court, I wouldn’t make the case that this should be a -4 or -4.5-game handicap, but I’d at the very least have this handicap at -3.5. That would mean if Marterer were to win the match by a single break in straight sets, it would come down to the service order in each set to determine the bet. With my numbers indicating Marterer wins in straight sets more often than not, -2.5 games mean any outcomes where Marterer breaks just once would be covered.
- Selection: Marterer -2.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.83 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
- Bonus: Marterer to win 2-0 at 2.36 odds with Pinnacle using 2/10 stakes.
Odds as at 3:00 am on November 17th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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