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Mixed martial arts Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Finals, Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev
Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Best Bet: Monday, November 14th
We’re into the home stretch of the tennis season now, as the ATP Tour hosts its year-end championships this week in Italy. The Challenger Tour also rolls on with a few more stops across the world – which will come in handy for the days we don’t spot too much value in the matches on offer at the year-end finals.
We ended last week with a void on the -2 games with Alexei Popyrin, as he came back from a set down to win by exactly two games against the young Frenchman Arthur Fils. For Monday’s preview, we’ll look at the all-Russian matchup in Turin between Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev.
In this article:
Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Preview
November 14th, 13:00 UK Time
This is sure to be a popular match to wager on among those who weigh head-to-head success heavily in their handicaps, with Medvedev having historically been dominant against his countryman.
Rublev did manage to best him in their last meeting in Cincinnati last year (though he had to do so from 2-6 down), but prior to that Medvedev hadn’t even lost a set in the five meetings between the two.
The reason? It’s an excellent stylistic matchup for the elder of the two. Medvedev has the ability to hold serve consistently, behind a booming first serve, but also has the rally tolerance, scrambling and defensive abilities, as well as the length to track down those big groundstrokes from Rublev and force him to hit a few extra shots, which can lead to unforced errors off the racquet of the 25-year-old.
Finally, in terms of Medvedev’s few weaknesses on hard courts, Rublev isn’t well-positioned to take advantage of them. When Medvedev goes into defensive mode and parks himself a few feet behind the baseline, those who can keep him honest by coming to the net or effectively mixing in dropshots have a chance to frustrate and beat him.
We saw that happen in the 3rd set of his match against Alex de Minaur. After a sluggish start, he was dominant for a 10-game stretch – especially on return. Once de Minaur started coming in more, however, he was able to hold serve much more easily. That isn’t Rublev’s bread and butter, and he prefers to stick to the baseline and dictate with his powerful forehand.
Finally, in terms of form, while Medvedev hasn’t been as good as he was in 2021 on hard courts, he’s looked pretty good of late. The de Minaur loss was one he should’ve won after jumping out to the early third set lead (his racquet smash at the end indicates he’s also aware of that fact), and prior to that he won the 500-level event in Vienna and lost in the semifinals against the best player in the world in Novak Djokovic at a 500 event in Astana.
This is a good matchup for Medvedev to kick off his year-end finals bid on the right foot.
Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Best Bet
The games handicap coming in at 1.83 for a number under four games is plenty of value for me to get involved here.
I’m going to split my total staking here, though, by having some on the 2-0 set score market as well, with Medvedev able to keep pace on serve and being the much better returner in this one and having the stylistic advantage that has led to him winning in straight sets so often against Rublev in the past.
- Selection: Medvedev -3.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.83 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 2/10
- Bonus: Medvedev to win 2-0 at 1.96 odds with Pinnacle using 2/10 stakes.
Odds as at 9:30 am on November 14th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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