tennis | Tuesday, November 15, 2022 8:21 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Finals, Felix Auger Aliassime vs Rafael Nadal

Jon Reid

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Rafael Nadal Best Bet: Tuesday, November 15th

The topsy-turvy last few weeks for Daniil Medvedev continue, as he loses his second straight match against his countryman, after having won every professional set against Andrey Rublev before that. Neither bet hits, and Medvedev’s road through the group has become much tougher.

For Tuesday, it’s back to the other group, with both Rafael Nadal and Felix Auger Aliassime desperate for a win to keep their hopes of reaching the semifinals alive. We’ll take a look at that match from Turin for our Tuesday selection.

In this article:

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Rafael Nadal Preview
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Rafael Nadal Best Bet

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Rafael Nadal Preview

November 15th, 13:00 UK Time

Great chance for a bounce-back win here for Auger Aliassime, who has had an absolutely incredible end to the season. It was a rough first match against Casper Ruud, but with his record on hard courts, much more reliable backhand (which he’ll need in this matchup), along with his incredible movement and elite serve and forehand combination, it’s far more likely that was an outlier than a worrisome predictor of his success this week.

With Nadal looking to be a shell of the player he was during the first part of the season, the Canadian will expect to pick up this win and keep his hopes of moving on alive.

At this stage, Auger Aliassime on a quicker hard court should be a strong favourite for many reasons. The bigger serve and forehand, along with his resume and form of late, are enough on their own to justify the current price presenting value. Consider how broken down Nadal has looked. It’s stunning that Auger Aliassime isn’t an overwhelming favourite.

Keep in mind, this isn’t a one-off for the legendary Spaniard, either. Not only did he fail to even generate a break point in his opening match against Taylor Fritz (almost unheard of, even on quicker courts for Nadal), but his own serve – which looked potent in the opening set – deteriorated rather quickly as the match progressed.

The same thing transpired in his opening match in Paris against American Tommy Paul, and he was dispatched as a heavy favourite from the U.S. Open by Frances Tiafoe (another American). In fact, since withdrawing from Wimbledon? Nadal is just 3-3, with just one victory in straight sets. It’s been a rough end to the year for the 36-year-old, whose physical style can take its toll over the course of a long season.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Rafael Nadal Best Bet

With the younger Canadian being in impeccable form, outside of his hiccup in his opening match and Nadal looking every bit of his age, I’m shocked to see Auger Aliassime’s price cheaper than 1.55 in the betting markets.

It’s never a smart idea to completely count out a competitor like Nadal, but all indications at the moment are that on a quick hard court, the younger, more athletic, more in-form Auger Aliassime should be a much stronger favourite than he is at the moment.