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tennis | Thursday, November 17, 2022 9:27 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Finals, Felix Auger Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Finals, Felix Auger Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz
Nicolò Campo / Alamy Stock Photo

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz Best Bet: Thursday, November 17th

It was a lovely straight-sets victory for Novak Djokovic against Andrey Rublev, as the Serbian legend once again locked up a spot in the semifinals of this event, taking advantage of the matchup and talent edges in his second-round robin match.

For Thursday, we’ll look to the evening session from Turin, as two tall, big servers, who also move decently well and can play some entertaining tennis outside of their booming serve and forehand strengths, as Felix Auger Aliassime and Taylor Fritz will do battle to see who joins Casper Ruud in the next stage of the event from this group.

In this article:


Felix Auger Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz Preview

November 17th, 20:00 UK Time

It should be a fun match to wrap up the action from the green group. With both Auger Aliassime and Fritz well-suited to the quick conditions with their big serves and ability to finish points quickly with their first forehands, I’m sure there may be some stretches of serve-oriented play.

Make no mistake, however. Despite their height and the fact that they’re both armed with incredibly powerful games, these two are far from being “servebots” (a common term used to describe a player that’s only real path to victory is to use an overpowering serve and hope to find a few return points in a tiebreak or the occasional break of serve). They’re both incredibly athletic, and now both have backhand wings that can hold up in lengthier rallies, while they wait out the chance to get back to their forehands to hit winners.

With a spot in the semis on the line, there’s plenty on the line for each of these budding stars.


Felix Auger Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz Best Bet

For our best bet from the match, I’m going to have to go with the over games in this one, for a few reasons.

For starters, the talent disparity between these two is incredibly small. While the Canadian has one of the best serve and forehand combinations in the sport, Fritz is right there with him. On the flip side, while Fritz once had a much more stable backhand, Auger Aliassime has really shored up that aspect to his game and while it may not be as strong as Fritz’s, he’s certainly closed the gap from where it was just a few months ago. This leads me to believe that we are going to see a closely-fought match and there’s a strong chance both of these men claim a set, which should send this over the total with ease.

Secondly, despite these two being pretty athletic and possessing decent rally tolerance for players that pack so much punch in their shots, this should still be a very serve-oriented affair. Both possess elite serves, and these courts are playing remarkably quickly this week – rewarding strong first serves handsomely. That should see a steady dose of holds of serves, with tiebreaks and 12-game sets probable outcomes.

Just look at the four matches these two have contested to this point. In four sets to this point, Auger Aliassime has only been broken once, and only broken serve twice in 41 games played, while his American counterpart has seen just three total breaks of serve in 50 games played in his prior matches. I see no reason for that to change in a match featuring the two biggest servers in the group.

The total of 23 games may seem a tad high, but consider this: the total for the match between Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas – a match with a similarly small talent gap and serve-first feel to it – closed at 24 games. I’m happy to get involved in a similar type match and get a full game on the total to do so.

  • Selection: Over 23 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.88 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:00 am on November 17th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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