tennis | Friday, November 18, 2022 8:37 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Finals, Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev

Jon Reid

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Best Bet: Friday, November 18th

Tough start to the week from the ATP Finals, but the last three days have seen the mispriced markets come in (needed with some other selections falling).

We’ll look to end our week of previews from Turin on a positive note, as we once again take a look at the match that will determine the second semifinalist from the group – this time the red group – between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev.

In this article:

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Preview
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Best Bet

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Preview

November 18th, 20:00 UK Time

For the second consecutive day, we’ll see a dead rubber match (though rankings points will be on the line) followed by the evening match deciding who moves on at one of the biggest events in the sport and who goes home.

Should be a fun one to end the day between Tsitsipas and Rublev, in a battle of the men that both lost to Novak Djokovic in straight sets, but beat Daniil Medvedev in a third-set tiebreak.

It appears to be yet another really difficult matchup for Rublev, after going up against a player who had dominated him for years and then another that had all the same strengths with none of the same weaknesses.

Where Rublev has a punishing first serve and powerful forehand, neither is actually better than his Greek opponent’s. On the backhand wing – where Tsitsipas can be vulnerable against power on quicker courts – Rublev can be shaky, loses the ability to stick around in the longer rallies and doesn’t really put many points away from that wing.

What’s more, Tsitsipas has shown the ability this week to play in longer rallies on his backhand, be patient and pounce on any opportunity to run around and hit forehands, seizing control of the points.

Finally, while Rublev’s service game is strong, there’s almost no doubt that he’ll be the one to face far more pressure on serve, by virtue of Tsitsipas’ absolutely dominant ability in his own service games.

Playing against the greatest returner the game has ever seen, Tsitsipas was broken just once, and then he was broken just once again taking on Medvedev in 17 service games played.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Best Bet

Without Rublev having much to trouble Tsitsipas, the Greek playing much smarter tennis this week, and his serve clicking and playing up to a nearly unbreakable level on these courts, I think Tsitsipas should be a larger favourite than we’re seeing in the markets at the moment.

I’m happy to back him to reach the semifinals – a deserved result for the way he’s played against two extremely tough opponents this week.