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tennis | Monday, November 21, 2022 9:25 AM

Monday Tennis Bonus Best Bet: ATP Challenger Temuco, Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Juan Bautista Otegui

Monday Tennis Bonus Best Bet: ATP Challenger Temuco, Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Juan Bautista Otegui
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Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Juan Bautista Otegui Best Bet: Monday, November 21st

A nice end to the week on our women’s writeups, as Panna Udvardy comes back from a set down to beat Sara Errani. The scoreline looked really close, but after the first set, it was relatively one-sided, with Udvardy struggling to convert break points and blowing a pair of third-set leads trying to seal the comeback.

With the women’s 125K event once again having odds delayed for the opening day, we’ll take a look at another match from the Challenger Tour, with a pair of Argentinians going toe-to-toe in Temuco, Chile.

In this article:

Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Juan Bautista Otegui Preview

November 21st, 17:00 UK Time

This one may be the opposite of the other men’s match that was written up in terms of how competitive it should be.

Ficovich may not be the most accomplished hard courter in the world, but he has certainly played at this level in the past and has the serve to find some success. In altitude, his game also plays up and with Temuco at about 350 metres of elevation, that should also be something that plays in his favour.

The primary focus of this write-up, however, will be on fading the younger of the two players from Argentina. Otegui has yet to play on a hard court in 2022 (whether that be indoors or outdoors), and he played in just three matches on the surface in 2021, losing two of them at a much lower level.

The 23-year-old’s performances haven’t been anything to write home about on his preferred clay courts either.

There isn’t much to his game, his serve can be pressured and it’s tough to see what exactly he does that could bother Ficovich.

Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Juan Bautista Otegui Best Bet

The odds reflect the one-sided nature of this matchup, but I’m firmly in the camp that believes the handicap doesn’t go nearly far enough.

With men’s tennis seeing lower numbers in the handicap market in general than women’s tennis (makes sense, with the service hold rate being higher in the men’s game, making it tougher to cover larger numbers), many bookmakers are often overly hesitant to move out to -5 or -5.5 game handicaps.

That’s where the edge comes from in this one, with my numbers having this handicap out at -5.5. Getting a -4.5-game handicap in the betting markets for this matchup is a huge edge, considering how valuable each half-game is as you get into the 4-6 game range.

I’m happy to back Ficovich to get this done with a rather large stake. Keep in mind, if he serves first in either of the first two sets, he could cover this number by winning each set by a singular break.

  • Selection: Ficovich -4.5 Games
  • Best Odds: 2.00 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 9:30 am on November 21st, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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