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tennis | Monday, November 28, 2022 9:03 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Maspalomas, Valentin Vacherot vs Steven Diez

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Maspalomas, Valentin Vacherot vs Steven Diez
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Valentin Vacherot vs Steven Diez Best Bet: Monday, November 28th

We end the week on a positive note, as Guido Andreozzi covers against his countryman Juan Bautista Otegui with ease on Friday. The veteran who had been focusing on doubles at the Challenger level this season actually went on to win the event as well.

For Monday, we’ll head to the Canary Islands and a clay tournament in Maspalomas to preview the matchup between Valentin Vacherot and Steven Diez.

In this article:

Valentin Vacherot vs Steven Diez Preview

November 28th, 14:00 UK Time

Fun matchup to break down here with a few different factors at play. From form and fatigue concerns, to surfaces and potential illusory, as well as conditions, there is plenty at play in a match that also features a fairly stark contrast in the stylistic approaches of the players.

First off, let’s talk about the Monegasque, who surprised many by jumping up to the Challenger Tour on a more regular basis in August, and immediately finding some success, reaching the quarterfinals in San Marino on clay as a qualifier, and then winning a title in Nonthaburi on hard courts.

There are caveats that come with each of those wins, however. First, the altitude in San Marino helped his strong first serve and may have led to more success on a slower surface than you’d expect to see at sea level and in windy conditions (like Maspalomas). Second, the Nonthaburi events are notorious for having some of the weaker fields on the Challenger Tour, so that result – while impressive – should be taken with a grain of salt.

Since then, Vacherot’s success has really tailed off. He’s just 3-5 since the start of October, in conditions that you would think would be to his liking on indoor courts in North America. What’s more, in an indication that he may be a tad overvalued as a favourite after some success in the summer, he’s just 1-3 at covering the handicap when favoured to win the match in that stretch, and the win came in a third set after splitting the opening sets by 6-4 scorelines.

With a game that is heavily predicated on a strong first serve and finding cheap points, Vacherot could be in big trouble on a slow surface at sea level, with weather potentially affecting his power, and an opponent that is strong on the dirt and can extend rallies.

Vacherot’s movement along the baseline is a weakness Diez should look to exploit, with players able to move the ball around the court consistently able to keep the ball out of Vacherot’s striking zone, and making it tough for him to win points.

Valentin Vacherot vs Steven Diez Best Bet

A retirement from Diez in his last match out is certainly back of mind when evaluating this match, but it’s been nearly three weeks, and the advantages in movement and comfort on clay, along with the overvaluation on Vacherot in this spot is a bit too much for me to pass up.

I’m going to back Diez to get this one done in an environment that should suit him decently.

  • Selection: Diez to win
  • Best Odds: 2.39 (Marathonbet)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 9:00 am on November 28th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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