Felix Auger Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/7/25

The ATP’s Rolex Monte Carlo Masters is back, and though there were a trio of first round matches on Sunday, the bulk of the opening round really gets going on Monday. Let’s look at one of the many matches on offer as we break down Felix Auger Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier.

Altmaier’s win probability is only about 30%, while Auger Aliassime is favoured to win at 1.36 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Jon Reid’s Auger Aliassime vs Altmaier prediction is for Altmaier to win.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier Prediction: Back Big Underdog on Preferred Surface

• Prediction: Daniel Altmaier to win
• Best Odds: 3.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds as at 2:45 am UK Time on April 7th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Another match where I’m not necessarily in love with the bet, but think that the number is just a bit too mispriced not to bet.

What do we have going for us with Altmaier at a price over 3.00? Well, he’s a clay court natural for one, he has a decent serve as well and I do think that he plays with plenty of topspin and can defend pretty well for a big guy, extending points, which is going to be key in this kind of matchup against the Canadian who can tend to spray errors, particularly on the backhand side from time-to-time. 

That’s the other thing about this matchup. I’m not sure Auger Aliassime has the backhand I’d want a player to have if I was going to make them a large favourite on clay against Altmaier. I’d want someone who can exploit his one-handed backhand and wait for an error or a short ball. In this match, it feels like the opposite is the more likely outcome, with Auger Aliassime’s backhand being the unreliable one.

Finally, I do think that a lot of this price has to do with Auger Aliassime simply being a better player, but also having improved on clay last year. I’m not sure that improvement is something we should really be giving him all that much credit for.

Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

What do I mean by that? Well, last year the now-24-year-old won 13 matches on the ATP Tour on the clay. That was his best year in terms of wins on the main circuit. Certainly improved, right?

Well that’s where I think context comes in. Nearly half those wins came at altitude, which helps his bigger serve and gets him closer to his preferred conditions. More importantly, there’s no altitude here and this is one of the venues with the slowest conditions on tour.

Then there’s the fact that a few of his wins in Madrid were also via retirement as he was very fortunate in his run to the final in the Spanish capital.

Even at the French Open where he made the fourth round, he beat two hard court players and a Challenger Tour opponent to reach the final 16.

It just feels like there was a bit of smoke and mirrors going on with that record and I’m looking to oppose him here with someone who is no stranger to pushing strong players on the red dirt.

Daniel Altmaier Recent Form

After a pretty poor loss last week in Marrakech to Otto Virtanen, Altmaier has come through qualifying nicely here, upsetting Jaume Munar and then getting past an in-form Pierre Hugues Herbert.

He’s one of those players that simply isn’t to be trusted as a favourite, because the errors can always flow and he does tend to lose the plot within sets or matches a bit too often. As an underdog though? He has a lot of qualities that make him an intriguing player to back.

Decent serve, plenty of weight on his shots, enough power and spin, moves around the baseline pretty well for a guy of his height and he’s also pretty durable on court.

I’ll trust all those qualities and look to oppose what I consider to be an overvalued Auger Aliassime.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier H2H – Stat of the Match

The two have only met once before. It was last season in Auckland as they geared up for the year’s first major. It was actually Altmaier that won a tight two setter. That win came on a hard court where his backhand would’ve been more vulnerable and the surface edge would’ve been flipped in the Canadian’s favour too.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.