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For our second preview of the day, we’ll head to the ATP Challenger Tour and look at Benjamin Hassan vs Chris Rodesch from the Bonn Open in Germany.
Rodesch’s win probability is 43%, while Hassan is favored to win at 1.62 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.
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Our Hassan vs Rodesch prediction is for Hassan to win and cover the handicap.
Odds updated at 3:30 am UK Time on August 5th, 2024.
While I understand that Rodesch’s ranking is so low at the moment because he’s spent a lot of time on campus at the University of Virginia and not playing full-time, I’m still not sure that he should only be a slight underdog on clay in a city that isn’t at altitude against someone like Hassan.
Hassan has had a topsy-turvy year, but he’s proven himself worthy of his top-200 ranking with some decent runs at this level on this surface and an impressive Olympics run that only lasted two matches, but saw him push tour regular Sebastian Baez to a third-set tiebreak in the second round.
He’s consistently undervalued because of some of his early losses, which are always a risk, but his game is more well-rounded (valuable on clay) than his Luxembourgian counterpart’s and I’m stunned to see these odds cheaper than 1.53.
It’s tough to dissect the form of the 29-year-old Lebanese international in 2024. On clay, he has an average record. He has some poor losses at this level to mediocre players (though I’d argue almost all of them are still more established at this point than the man he plays Monday), yet he’s got wins against the likes of Cristian Garin, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Emilio Nava, and Giulio Zeppieri. All fairly strong players that have either been tour-level pros or have big potential.
He has a fairly well-rounded game, can execute drop shots, work all corners of the court, hit with spin and I think he’s seen as underpowered, when he’s closer to average than subpar in that department.
His serve placement is also excellent and I’m anxious to see how he fares against the tall Rodesch, particularly on return. With far more professional experience and matches against really good players, I think it’s disrespectful to have him lined at 1.62 odds.
There isn’t much to look at for Rodesch. As someone who played NCAA tennis, which doesn’t compare to the pro circuit, we can’t delve into his performance at Virginia. They also play on hard courts, so any data one could find wouldn’t be applicable either.
Professionally, he’s played just one match at this level, losing in Karlsruhe, Germany.
This year, he’s won 12 matches to two losses on the dirt, but those matches have all been played at the ITF level.
Only two of those wins were strong ones, and his losses came against rather uninspiring competition.
Perhaps he’s ready to make this jump to the Challenger Tour and to beat a top-200 player who has proven himself, but I’ll need to see it first.
No prior meetings between these two, with Rodesch spending so much time playing college tennis up to this point.
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