tennis | Tuesday, February 21, 2023 9:28 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Rio de Janeiro, Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Jaume Munar

Jon Reid

Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Jaume Munar Best Bet: Tuesday, February 21st

It was a loss for Zizou Bergs on Monday, but he did take it three sets and created his chances on return against Stan Wawrinka. Unfortunately, it was more of the same from the Belgian, as he lost a winnable match, in what has become a pattern for him.

For Tuesday’s preview, we’ll look at the matchup between Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Jaume Munar.

In this article:

Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Jaume Munar Preview
Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Jaume Munar Best Bet

Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Jaume Munar Preview

February 21st, 22:30 (UK Time)

Opposing players off of strong weeks that may be overvalued in their next tournaments is something I’m always looking to do and we have a perfect spot to do so in this match.

Coming off a semifinal appearance in Buenos Aires, Zapata Miralles is now favoured by the betting markets to beat his compatriot in a match I don’t think he would’ve been favoured to win just two weeks ago.

While we should respect strong form in a handicap, context is always key. Take a look at how Zapata Miralles reached the final four in his event last week, before he was beaten comprehensively by Carlos Alcaraz.

He began by beating Pedro Martinez in three sets. Martinez had lost three straight matches entering that one. He then went on to beat the completely out of form Diego Schwartzman, who has just one win in 2023 and who has now lost 10 of his last 11 matches (including Davis Cup, but not including Laver Cup play). Finally, he had a decent win against Francisco Cerundolo, whose forehand can abandon him at times. That one was also in three sets.

Now, Zapata Miralles takes on a player with a similar game plan as his own in Munar, except Munar has executed it at a much higher level in the past.

Zapata Miralles’ forehand has served him well in an attacking capacity in the last few weeks, but it certainly doesn’t have the requisite power to trouble the stubborn defensive abilities of Munar.

Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Jaume Munar Best Bet

In a matchup between two rock solid, consistency-oriented players, I’ll side with the veteran that I believe has had more success in his career – especially at underdog odds.

Munar’s improved his own serve and looks to attack a little more often with his forehand as well, which is encouraging, since he no longer needs to rely solely on errors from his opponents.

Statistically, their elo ratings on the dirt are very close to one another, while Munar in the last 52 weeks at tour level on clay has the higher hold plus break percentage.

This certainly has the feel of the wrong player being favoured for me, and I’m happy to back Munar to come away with the win in Rio on Tuesday.