Katie Boulter vs Robin Montgomery Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 26th

Our second preview of the day at the Mutua Madrid Open also comes from the women’s side of things with Katie Boulter vs Robin Montgomery. Our Boulter vs Montgomery prediction is below!. Montgomery’s win probability is 38%, with Boulter favored to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Boulter vs Montgomery Prediction: Oppose Favourite on Clay

• Prediction: Montgomery to win
• Best Odds: 2.63
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

go with our tip at UnibetIf you’re going to give me a talented young gun with a better track record on the surface the match is being played on who has a lefty game that can target her opponent’s weakness at nice over even odds, I’m going to take it.

Montgomery has played more this season on the clay at the age of 19 than Boulter has in years.

Now, there’s a quality of competition discrepancy here and Boulter is established and playing well this year her serve should be able to find her some cheap points in the altitude of the Spanish capital, but make no mistake, the power-oriented, flatter-hitting of the Brit does not work well on clay and I don’t blame her for not playing much on it (though some of that was due to injury). Our Boulter vs Montgomery prediction is for Montgomery to win.

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Katie Boulter Recent Form

It was a strong start to the year down under at the United Cup with a pair of underdog wins representing Great Britain for the Leicester native.

After that, it was a disappointing run for a few tournaments before she went on to win the title at the WTA 500 in San Diego.

Since that win? A thrashing at the hands of Camila Giorgi, a pair of wins in Miami (which has played quicker and more to her liking in the last few seasons) before being dispatched by Victoria Azarenka, who dominated the starts of both sets before nearly choking the opener away.

Now, the real handicap here is the fact that her form on clay has been…. nonexistent. It’s not that she’s been poor, so much as she hasn’t played at all. Just two matches in the last three seasons, with a 1-1 record in last year’s French Open qualifying draw, needing three sets to beat an ITF clay courter and then losing in three sets to up-and-coming American and fellow hard courter Ashlyn Krueger.

Let me just say, though it’s a small sample, Montgomery is as talented or more talented than both and much more competent on the clay.

Boulter has a nice serve and forehand combination, but her backhand leaves one wanting, her movement still needs improvement and much like Kalinina in our first preview, she tends to be a streaky player as a result.

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Robin Montgomery Recent Form

Montgomery may come from the United States, but like her compatriot Emma Navarro, she’s taken a liking to the clay, having gone down to South America at the end of last year to get some clay matches in, while also winning a high-level ITF event on the dirt in France last spring.

The errors in 2022 and 2023 were an issue, but she’s played more solid tennis from the matches I’ve watched this year and it doesn’t surprise me to see her finding wins in recent weeks.

She played in altitude in Mexico a few weeks ago and does have a match under her belt at this venue (the lone built-in advantage unseeded players have over their seeded competition in the second round), crushing Elina Avanesyan in the opening round as a sizable underdog.

Avanesyan isn’t nearly as strong of a hitter as Boulter, but she is a clay court natural, so there is something to take away from that victory.

Montgomery’s serve is decent, she can dictate play as well, has cleaned up her game a lot in recent years (though there’s still some work to be done) and has that lefty game, which can target the leakier backhand of Boulter if she directs her serves to that side with regularity.

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Katie Boulter vs Robin Montgomery H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between these two. The elo ratings somehow favour Boulter here, despite the lack of play and no real strong wins on the surface. That’s because Tennis Abstract recommends using the blended elo when evaluating matchups.

The blended rating, however, factors in both the overall elo, along surface elo. When we look at the raw clay rating? Montgomery – despite playing weaker competition and being so young – already eclipses Boulter by well over 100 points.

Go ahead and lock me in for a larger-sized bet on the young lefty. If it loses, so be it, but there’s too much value with Montgomery being below 40%.

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