tennis | Monday, October 24, 2022 7:34 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Basel, Brandon Nakashima vs David Goffin

Jon Reid

Brandon Nakashima vs David Goffin Best Bet: Monday, October 24th

Well, it was a lovely display in the all-veteran matchup on Friday from Frenchman Richard Gasquet, as he took out David Goffin to bring home a nice over evens bet.

For Monday’s article selection, we’ll once again focus on a match featuring the Belgian, as he takes on youngster Brandon Nakashima on the indoor courts in the northern Swiss town of Basel.

In this article:

Brandon Nakashima vs David Goffin Preview
Brandon Nakashima vs David Goffin Best Bet

Brandon Nakashima vs David Goffin Preview

October 24th, 14:00 UK Time

Much like we went over in Friday’s article, we’re seeing the current iteration of Goffin incredibly overvalued in the betting markets.

With Nakashima’s price to win the match north of the 1.50 mark, we’re seeing a games handicap of just -3 (or -2.5 if you’re so inclined to take the more expensive price of 1.85).

For starters, let’s consider the form of each of these men entering Monday’s encounter.

Nakashima has lost just three matches since late August. One in a best-of-five-set format to one of the best young players on tour in Jannik Sinner at the U.S. Open (he won the first set in that one as well). Another came to Felix Auger Aliassime in the quarterfinals in Florence. For those that aren’t aware, the Canadian won that event and the event in Antwerp, Belgium this past week and is one of the most in-form players on tour. The other came to a solid, albeit still recovering Borna Coric.

All told, Nakashima is 10-3 on hard courts since the start of the U.S. Open, has a title to his name (in his hometown of San Diego) and has lost to some of the better players on tour.

As for Goffin? Well, he’s won consecutive matches on tour just once since Wimbledon, including last week in Antwerp, where he beat a reeling Diego Schwartzman and needed three sets to narrowly beat his compatriot (and top junior talent) Gilles Arnaud Bailly as a 6.5-game favourite.

There is nothing in Goffin’s form that has been particularly inspiring or makes me want to take him with a relatively small 3-game head start.

As for the matchup between these two, Nakashima has the ability to stick with the 31-year-old in the longer rallies. His flat style will work well in the medium to medium-quick conditions we normally see in Basel. He’s got more energy reserves to deal with a prolonged match and he’s got enough ability on the return of serve to ensure he creates the break opportunities needed to cover this games handicap.

Brandon Nakashima vs David Goffin Best Bet

As we discussed at the end of last week, Goffin is simply overvalued in the markets at the moment.

Whether it be his form, or the fact he’s struggled to really hit through or grind down opponents, he simply hasn’t looked like someone that should be priced this closely handicap-wise against one of the under-the-radar strong young talents.

At current prices, I have this handicap nearing a full game off, with -3 to -3.5 and -3.5 to -4 games being rather important jumps in tennis betting – especially on the men’s tour where the hold percentages are higher, making each game that much more valuable.