tennis | Friday, January 13, 2023 1:58 PM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Auckland, Cameron Norrie vs Richard Gasquet

Jon Reid

Cameron Norrie vs Richard Gasquet Best Bet: Friday, January 13th

A nice five-game win for Cameron Norrie in the semifinals in Auckland to set up a shot at his first Auckland title – something that would mean something to the man who used to represent New Zealand internationally.

He takes on Richard Gasquet on Saturday locally in the capital, and that’s where our Friday selection comes from.

In this article:

Cameron Norrie vs Richard Gasquet Preview
Cameron Norrie vs Richard Gasquet Best Bet

Cameron Norrie vs Richard Gasquet Preview

January 14th, 1:00 (UK Time)

What a chance for Norrie in this final. The 27-year-old has captured four singles titles in his career, but one has to believe this would be among the biggest to him, despite being just a 250-level event, considering how many times he’s played here, the fact he was once considered a New Zealand player and the support he gets from the crowd.

He takes on the veteran from Beziers, France and is a substantial favourite to take home the title. For my money, he should be an even larger favourite for a few reasons.

First things first, the gap in quality between the current iterations of Norrie and Gasquet is massive. The 36-year-old has had one heck of a career but is clearly much closer to the end of it than its peak.

Secondly, the matchup works very well for the southpaw. With Gasquet known as one of the players who plays with the most topspin in the last few decades (if not all time), if one isn’t capable of handling that, they’re in trouble. Norrie is just fine playing loopy, spin-heavy tennis.

The Brit’s lefty forehand should be able to hold up in longer rallies against the famous, silky one-handed backhand of Gasquet as well, neutralising one of the Frenchman’s favourite aspects to his game.

The fitness, endurance and athleticism are almost always the edge for Norrie over his opposition, but the gap in this one may be the most pronounced of the week.

Norrie’s form is also incredible. He’s 6-0 to start the year, will enter the Australian Open with the most wins on tour in 2023 regardless of the result here, and he’s beaten some strong quick-court hard-court players in Jenson Brooksby, Marcos Giron and the ascending Czech Jiri Lehecka.

Gasquet, on the other hand, has beaten a fellow veteran on the decline in David Goffin, received a walkover from Constant Lestienne, beaten local wild card Kiranpal Pannu and taken out a journeyman in Joao Sousa. Nothing too impressive there and certainly nothing to suggest he’ll topple one of the best players in the men’s game.

Finally, Norrie is well known for his consistency, endurance and rally tolerance. This season though, his first serve has been a tad more imposing and his forehand, while by no means a weapon on the men’s tour, has certainly added a bit of mustard to it relative to previous years.

I’m happy to back Norrie to take down the title in front of an incredibly supportive crowd.

Cameron Norrie vs Richard Gasquet Best Bet

A few things go into this being a strong value bet.

For starters, just the sheer logic (or lack thereof) of making Norrie a -3.5-game favourite against Richard Gasquet after posting that same number against Jenson Brooksby is ridiculous to me. Whether overvaluing the Frenchman or undervaluing Brooksby, the fact is that Brooksby is a tougher opponent in the year 2023 on a quick hard court than Gasquet. I understand the odds are about 10 cents on the dollar off and that changes the implied win probabilities, but this should be a half-game to full game different from his last match.

Secondly, the talent gap here, the narrative-based angle of crowd support, the actual tactical matchup? All in the Brit’s favour here as well.

Finally, I will say, I actually have a Norrie to win the event betslip from prior to the tournament personally. Many people would be inclined to secure profit and bet on Gasquet to win this final at odds of 3.75. It seems like a cheap hedge, no? Perhaps, but for me the value in this individual market lies with the favourite and I’ll double down backing him here.