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tennis | Wednesday, January 25, 2023 9:40 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Concepcion, Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Concepcion, Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
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Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Best Bet: Wednesday, January 25th

The men are off for a day in Australia, as the women’s semifinals take centre stage for the day. With that, we’ll look to a match in Chile at the Challenger level between Argentinians Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Thiago Agustin Tirante for our selection from men’s tennis on Wednesday.

In this article:


Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Preview

January 25th, 14:30 (UK Time)

This one should be a rather fun tilt for a few reasons, as the two clay-court centric players do battle in South America.

The more aggressive of the two, Tirante, should feel comfortable with the fact that he’s likely to have the biggest weapon on the court in his forehand. While it can sometimes lead to unforced errors, it is certainly a groundstroke that allows him to take control from the baseline.

It’s his first match on his preferred surface this year, but his attempt to open his season on hard courts down under wasn’t a total catastrophe. He dropped his opening match at a tuneup event in which he led 7-5, 5-3 and had four total match points and followed that up by a second-round appearance in Australian Open qualifying, losing only to Aleksandar Vukic, a big serving Aussie who is right at home on quicker hard courts.

Ugo Carabelli is into his third event of the year, and has yet to face a real test in 2023. His first loss came in baffling fashion against Jesper de Jong (he won just one game after leading 4-0 to start), and last week he went out to Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera as a favourite in the quarterfinals.

As a far more defensively-minded player, he should provide a contrast stylistically to his countryman on the other side of the net.

This one really should come down to who can execute their style of play more effectively. Can Ugo Carabelli successfully prolong points and coax Tirante into making plenty of errors? Or will Tirante be able to hit through his defences and emerge victorious?


Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Best Bet

When looking for value in this matchup, I can’t help but get away from how overvalued Ugo Carabelli can be in betting markets against guys who are seemingly as talented, but priced regularly as underdogs.

In fact, the last six times Ugo Carabelli has lost, he’s been the favourite by the time the match began, which tells me that while he’s a strong player, he tends to be overvalued on a fairly consistent basis in the markets and with the right opposition, could be profitable to oppose.

While I’m not necessarily making the case that Tirante should be the favourite, I simply don’t think that having him priced as a significant underdog is correct.

Even if we factor in the long travel from Australia and the switch to clay courts for the first time on the season, he should still be given a decent chance to win this match.

  • Selection: Tirante to win
  • Best Odds: 2.81 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 12:00 am on January 25th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


More Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Tips


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