Roberto Carballes Baena vs Chris O’Connell Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 9th

The matches continue to come thick and fast through the weekend, as the first round concludes and the second round will commence for the ATP singles draw. With the Internazionali BNL d’Italia being another two-week Masters event, the second round will feature as many matches as the first. For our first preview on Thursday, let’s delve into Jon Reid’s Carballes Baena vs O’Connell prediction.

The market expects O’Connell to win this one by about 36%, with Carballes Baena entering the match favored to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Carballes Baena vs O’Connell Prediction: Carballes Baena Too Strong Defensively for Streaky O’Connell

• Prediction: Carballes Baena -3 Games & -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.85 & 2.01
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on May 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Creating these Asian handicaps like the football markets is quickly becoming something I’m enjoying in the tennis markets. I do like the 1.85 price point on the -3, but a 16-cent difference on the dollar for that half-game has me wanting a piece of that action as well.

Carballes Baena is playing well, hitting a heavier forehand, constructing points beautifully, and excels in slower conditions.

On the flip side, O’Connell has struggled to maintain any kind of decent level when he’s played strong tennis and has been dismantled in his last few matches.

Finally, when I take a look at how these two guys’ styles match up, I’m inclined to favor Carballes Baena there as well. The surface and court speed conditions both favor the Spaniard, but I also think his rigid solidity and ability to make his opponents play an enormous number of shots in any given rally is perfectly positioned to exploit an O’Connell who has had crazy stretches with unforced errors in his matches and who doesn’t have the requisite power to hit through the courts and someone like Carballes Baena. My Carballes Baena vs O’Connell prediction is for Carballes Baena to cover the handicap.

More previews from across sports can be found on our expert insights page.

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Roberto Carballes Baena Recent Form

It’s hard to make a declaration like “Carballes Baena is playing his best tennis at the moment” since he lost from 6-1 up in the second round last tournament in Madrid, but he is playing some really strong matches.

That match against Alexander Bublik (the player that beat him in the Spanish capital) repeated at sea level would likely see Carballes Baena close it out with relative ease, and his losses in the Marrakech final and Barcelona round of 16 came against some really strong competition that both possesses the weapons to hit through his defenses in Matteo Berrettini and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

I think the form is there, the weight on his forehand has been tough to deal with an attack and he’s playing a manageable opponent – a situation he’s fared well in since the start of the clay portion of the schedule.

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Chris O’Connell Recent Form

Not only is this a tough matchup for O’Connell (he’ll need to time his approaches well and play some incredible tennis at the net), but he enters without any form to show at all.

The Aussie is on a three-match losing skid to Alejandro Tabilo, Taro Daniel, and Matteo Arnaldi, failing to cover both handicaps as an underdog and losing as a favorite along the way.

I would normally be a fan of him at these prices, but his lack of attack, poor form, and patchy play going back to Miami has been a big concern. Even his two wins in Monte Carlo came against the horrifically out-of-form Maximilian Marterer and the poor-on-clay Aleksandar Vukic.

He needed three sets in both of those matches and looked both great and abysmal for stretches in each of those contests.

Inconsistent play and errors are a recipe for disaster against Carballes Baena and could very well lead to a lopsided set or two, which would be ideal for our handicap.

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Carballes Baena vs O’Connell H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meeting between these two, despite both being veteran players. Perhaps it’s the fact that O’Connell has spent a lot of the time getting to this level, but it’s still somewhat surprising to see they’ve yet to run into each other on the pro circuit.

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