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tennis | Thursday, March 16, 2023 8:50 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Indian Wells, Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger Aliassime

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Indian Wells, Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger Aliassime
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger Aliassime Best Bet: Thursday, March 16th

We get one of the three bets from Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who played a puzzlingly poor match, but still had his chances in the second set to get the +1.5 sets handicap over the line as well.

Thursday brings us the conclusion of the quarterfinal round, as the race for the title truly heats up. Let’s look at the matchup between Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger Aliassime.

In this article:

Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger Aliassime Preview

March 17th, 2:00 (UK Time)

It’s been quite the start to the season for the Spanish phenom. He returned to action in Buenos Aires with a title, and then reached the final in Rio de Janeiro, where an injury sustained during the match likely cost him a second title in as many weeks.

He pulled out of Acapulco, which sparked concerns over his fitness for Indian Wells, but he’s alleviated any of those concerns, with a string of dominant wins to this point.

He also matches up well with the Canadian on these slow courts, given how well he can strike the ball and how well he can extend rallies.

As strong as Auger Aliassime’s serve is, it won’t be nearly as effective on a slow centre court and in cooler conditions.

Given how many unforced errors he’s hit in previous matches with athletic baseliners that have managed to extend rallies, you have to wonder how on earth he’ll find a way through Alcaraz.

He’s the most athletic player Auger Aliassime has played yet (or on tour in general), he can hit through the courts more than the Canadian’s last two opponents and he’s just at a talent level that no one else can rival that isn’t named Novak Djokovic.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger Aliassime Best Bet

With this match at night, I have this handicap at -4.5 games and approaching -5 as the true number.

In terms of why this number hasn’t moved enough just yet (it’s already moved from -3 and -3.5 games), the aforementioned strong serve for Auger Aliassime certainly plays a factor.

The fact Auger Aliassime has beaten Alcaraz all three times they’ve played is certainly also being priced into this match by the market. I’m not so sure the quick indoor conditions of Basel or the Davis Cup are applicable to this matchup. Especially considering Alcaraz wasn’t playing fully fit in the latter stages of 2022. Nor do I feel a match in which Alcaraz was injured in 2021 should really be given much credibility.

I’ll happily give up a four-game head start, even against a strong server, all things considered.

  • Selection: Alcaraz -4 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.95 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 3/10
  • Bonus: Alcaraz -1.5 sets at 1.90 with Unibet, using 2/10 stakes.

Odds as at 2:30 am on March 15th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

More Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger Aliassime Tips

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