Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/28/24

The match of the day comes from the ATP draw where we have Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov from the Miami Open. This is probably the match of the day, with both men playing some fantastic tennis and being in solid form. Dimitrov’s win probability is only 17.6% while Alcaraz is favored to win at 1.17 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21. Our Alcaraz vs Dimitrov prediction is to pass and enjoy the match!

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Alcaraz vs Dimitrov Prediction: Trust the Market in Thursday’s Marquee Match

I would have tipped Alcaraz on the handicap if the number hadn’t moved so drastically since the market opened. Most people like to bet on the best of the best, but it’s still surprising to see a men’s match on a fairly quick court move from a slightly expensive -3.5 games to -4.5 games.

For reference, the price on -3.5 was 1.85 to begin and at the time of writing is down to 1.54. That’s a wild amount of money on the young Spaniard.

It also makes sense. I’m not keen on Dimitrov’s chances in this match, but between his penchant for strong service games and Alcaraz’s tendency to sometimes lose the range on his forehand, I think the current handicap is appropriate. With three, four, and five games being the most common margins of victory in men’s tennis, you can see why this shift is such a big deal. 

My tip for this match is to tune in and see how Dimitrov approaches the match and what tactics he tries to use to close the gap on one of the best in the world.

Read on for more expert insights.

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Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

After a disappointing quarterfinal exit against Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open and a  shockingly poor Golden Swing on clay in South America that included an injury, Alcaraz has returned looking as though he’s back to his best.

He defended his title in Indian Wells and is off to a sensational start in Miami, not having dropped more than four games in a set to this point.

Dimitrov is the best opponent he’ll have played though, and certainly has the best serve (especially since Gael Monfils didn’t look right after falling and potentially rolling his ankle early a few rounds ago).

I don’t think that’ll matter much to one of the most talented players in the world though, especially given how dominant he’s been so far.

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Grigor Dimitrov Recent Form

Knowing how frustratingly inconsistent Dimitrov has been for the vast majority of his career, I think many observers of the tennis world were waiting for him to revert to that level of looking great one day and horrible the next.

That hasn’t happened. This is one of the longest periods of sustained success we’ve seen from the 32-year-old. He’s already made this his best run at the Miami Open and if he could somehow pull off the upset against Alcaraz, he’d be tantalisingly close to returning to the top-10.

The serve has never been an issue, nor has the forehand. His one-handed backhand? One of the last ones that hasn’t looked vulnerable and prone to being rushed. That led many to conclude that it was all between the ears of the former world No. 3.

With that seemingly sorted, he has firmly placed himself among the best players in the world in a sort of renaissance run in his early 30s.

If I were to construct a path to victory for him on Thursday, it would be to serve well, not be afraid of being passed, and try to get to the net as much as possible to minimize Alcaraz’s edge from the baseline and to employ the backhand slice early and often and make Alcaraz hit a lot of balls each rally, since he can lose the plot for stretches and those are where Dimitrov will have to capitalize.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov H2H – Stat of the Match

This rivalry had been totally one-sided in the young gun’s favor. Until their most recent meeting in the fall in Shanghai, where Dimitrov got on the board with a win.

Now a few caveats. First, it was three sets and still somewhat close. Secondly, Alcaraz’s Achilles heel in his exemplary early career has been his post-U.S. Open stretches. He has struggled to continue his dominance late in the year after a long season. Finally, Shanghai is one of the quicker courts on tour. The quicker the hard court, the more vulnerable Alcaraz is.

That’s not to say he’s poor on quicker courts, simply less dominant. Miami playing fairly quickly, but not nearly Shanghai quickly.

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