tennis | Wednesday, May 3, 2023 8:19 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Madrid, Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov

Jon Reid

Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Best Bet: Wednesday, May 3rd

Tough result from Pedro Cachin, as he was the far superior player throughout the first set, which he somehow managed to lose and then nearly dropped the second set from a double break up against Jan Lennard Struff. Naturally, after all the blown chances, he had very little energy left for the deciding set and lost us another bet at the margins.

Onto Wednesday, where it’s the phenom in Carlos Alcaraz taking on Karen Khachanov that appears to be showing some value in the betting markets from Madrid.

In this article:

Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Preview
Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Best Bet

Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Preview

May 3rd, 15:00 (UK Time)

Well, not like he needed it, but the draw has opened up in a way for Alcaraz, as he now takes on Khachanov instead of Rublev and then plays either Daniel Altmaier or Borna Coric in the subsequent round should he avoid an unlikely upset at the hands of the big Russian.

Alcaraz actually matches up really well with Khachanov, who can be a bit erratic and will likely require a near-perfect day on serve to really do damage here.

The world No. 2 has won both previous meetings on clay (not surprising), and well I’m not a big fan of using head-to-head without contextualising the results, both of those took place a year ago and it does make sense, considering how many errors Khachanov can hit and how many balls Alcaraz can make anyone play with his other-worldly athleticism and defending.

Alcaraz is also in fine form at the moment, having won Barcelona without much resistance and has been absolutely dominant in his home country’s capital outside of the very first set played as well.

Even in the altitude, he’s managed to find a plethora of breaks against strong servers like Grigor Dimitrov and Alexander Zverev, winning three of the four sets played in those matches by a 6-2 score or better.

That should prepare him well for Khachanov, who hasn’t been the most convincing to this point in the tournament.

Khachanov has required three sets to beat an out-of-form Roberto Bautista Agut and then a deciding set to emerge victorious against Thiago Monteiro as well.

His win against his compatriot came in straight sets, but only by a margin of one break of serve.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Best Bet

Those last points are key in my approach to betting this match.

Between Alcaraz’s ability to post lopsided set scores on a relatively consistent basis and the matchup advantage he has here indicating he should be more than capable of continuing that trend, I’m happy to back a -5-game handicap that I believe should be at -5.5 games and in the 1.80-1.83 range.

That is a key half-game and a huge difference in price as well.

I also think a total of 20 games is far too generous to Khachanov, who isn’t likely to snatch a set and would have to play some brilliant tennis for an extended period to ensure that the total games surpasses 20.