Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 9th

It’s the first day of the Wimbledon quarterfinals, as the players at the All England Club are inching ever closer to hoisting the most famous trophies the sport has to offer. Let’s look at the day’s other men’s quarter in Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul.

Paul’s win probability is around 23%, while Alcaraz is favored to win at 1.26 odds. The handicap is 5 games and the total games line is 38.

Our Alcaraz vs Paul prediction is for Paul to push Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction: Low Value in Wimbledon Quarter-Final

It’s tough to find a market to back Paul in that has value, with the 5.5 games a bit expensive, the total being very high and implying Paul wins at least a set, and the over 3.5 sets (or both players to win a set) around 1.64.

It’s the latter that I’m closest to betting, but it just comes short of the 1.70 price I need to bet it.

It can be annoying not having bets on the biggest matches of the season, but it serves as a good lesson in discipline. These are the most well-known players in the betting markets and the most liquid and efficient markets in tennis betting. Sometimes it’s best to stay patient and wait for better opportunities. Next week there are four ATP tournaments on the schedule. There will be plenty of chances then.

Read on for more expert insights.

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Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

A close first two sets against a Challenger player in Mark Lajal. A tough first set against a player lacking dimension to his game in Aleksandar Vukic. Five sets and six points from defeat against Frances Tiafoe and then a four-set win that featured a 1-6 lost set against Ugo Humbert.

This is both shaky and scary from Alcaraz. Sure, it’s not the most convincing path to the quarters, but he’s winning nonetheless. The question one has to ask is: what happens when he starts firing on all cylinders? I’m going to bet that Jannik Sinner is hoping Paul can take him out before that ever happens.

This resembles the U.S. Open from a few summers ago, where Alcaraz played patchy tennis but still advanced through the draw. What did he do that year in New York City? Won his maiden grand slam.

That’s the thing with players like Alcaraz. Their talent is on a special level where they may not need their best to move on.

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Tommy Paul Recent Form

If there’s a guy who may be able to finally catch the Spaniard off guard it may just be Paul.

Not only has he pushed Alcaraz in the past (more on that below), but he’s in scintillating form. He won the 500-level tournament at Queen’s Club a few weeks ago and has been on fire, winning six straight sets since that tough five-setter he won against a redlining Otto Virtanen.

He’s now won nine in a row coming into this contest and though I’m not big on analysis like “he’s sure to have confidence in this match” I do think that when playing Alcaraz, players may very well be better off convincing themselves that they may be able to use their momentum to overcome one of the world’s best.

I can’t wait to see how Paul approaches this match. Can he work his forehand side-to-side and take the ball early while working his way in? It’s something he’s said that he and his coaches have worked on explicitly this season, and it may be an effective tactic to neutralize the incredible movement and defending of Alcaraz. Stealing time with early ball striking and getting to the net are key in matchups like this.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul H2H – Stat of the Match

Paul is one of the few players that has given Alcaraz fits in their head-to-head series.

It’s tied 2-2 with Paul having beaten the phenom in Canada last summer and then Alcaraz getting revenge in the very next tournament in Cincinnati, though he did need three sets to do it.

Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean Paul can do it again, but he is decent on grass, is in good form and this is probably still the best place to try and beat Alcaraz.

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Safer Gambling

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