Jan Choinski vs Denis Kudla Prediction, Picks, Form, H2H, May 20th

The French Open is here! Well…at least the qualifying rounds are here. Though the tennis world turns its attention to the season’s second grand slam for two weeks, the tournament takes place over three. Our Choinski vs Kudla prediction at 2.02 odds is available below!

Let’s look at Jan Choinski vs Denis Kudla in an opening-round clash of players vying for an all-important main draw position.

Kudla’s win probability is only 32.1% while Choinski is favored to win at 1.38 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 22.

Choinski vs Kudla Prediction: Oppose Quick Court Specialist in Slow Conditions

• Prediction: Choinski -4 Games
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on May 20th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

If there was ever an easy player to oppose on clay, it’s the American. Though some from the United States are becoming increasingly comfortable on the red dirt, Kudla does not fall into that category.

His flatter hitting style and especially his preference for a lower bounce are at complete odds with how the sport is played on this surface.

Choinski has a decent serve, plays with strong rally tolerance and is a competent clay court player at the Challenger Tour level. That is enough for me to go ahead and back him.

Remember, four games may seem like a lot in men’s tennis, but we’re at a venue with particularly slow conditions and opposing a player who is a fish out of water. Kudla does have a few more wins on the dirt in recent times, but in the form section of this article, I’ll go over why even his subpar record is distorted and can be construed as flattering. Our Choinski vs Kudla prediction is for Choinski to cover the handicap & for the match to stay under the total.

Another preview from the men’s qualifying draw at the French Open can be found on our  Expert Insights page.

Jan Choinski Recent Form

The Brit enters Roland Garros off a decent clay court season, qualifying for Estoril and reaching the second round, nearly qualifying in Munich and most recently losing to the mercurial Elias Ymer in the quarters of a Challenger in Portugal in three sets.

He has a decent serve, constructs points well, and can frustrate players with his solidity from the baseline. There’s no high-end weapon though, and that sometimes proves costly when he comes up against a competent and talented player

Luckily for him, that’s not the case here, as he squares off with one of the worst clay courters one will find in the men’s qualifying draw.

Denis Kudla Recent Form

If there was ever a player who epitomizes the quick surface kind of guy that is probably already looking a few weeks ahead to the grass season in this draw, it’s Kudla.

Hey may be 4-5 on clay this year, but don’t be fooled, most of those wins came in San Luis Potosi at a Challenger. That is at altitude, which simulates quicker conditions to an extent, and those tournaments feature really weak fields to boot.

Even there, when he tried to hit with spin to add margin for error to his game, he simply looked like he was pushing the ball back trying to stay alive in rallies and not playing with any kind of intent.

If we want to isolate matches played on traditional red clay at sea level, we have a total of three matches to look at…since the start of the 2022 season.

Unsurprisingly, Kudla is 0-3 in those matches, losing two of them to fellow hard courters (Marton Fucsovics and Jason Kubler) and the third to a French young gun last year at this venue. That French player is still developing and playing down on the ITF Tour – the lowest of the three professional circuits.

The average margin of defeat in those matches? 4.33 games. It should be said that the three-game loss to Kubler came in a best-of-five format, but even still, I don’t think he’s one that even overperforms expectations.

Choinski vs Kudla H2H – Stat of the Match

Kudla leads the head-to-head 2-0, but the last time they played was six years ago and the previous matches took place on grass (Kudla’s bread and butter) and a hard court. Not going to read anything into either of those.

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