Flavio Cobolli vs Luciano Darderi Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, August 15th

Let the ATP previews roll on! We’re back and ready for the Cincinnati Open as we take a look at Flavio Cobolli vs Luciano Darderi in a matchup that pits two clay courters against one another on hard courts. Jon Reid’s Cobolli vs Darderi prediction is available below!

Darderi’s win probability is around 42.5%, while Cobolli is favoured to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

Flavio Cobolli vs Luciano Darderi Prediction: Cobolli to Best Compatriot in Cincinnati

• Prediction: Cobolli to win
• Best Odds: 1.65
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:15 am UK Time on August 15th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Part of being good at handicapping is trying not to focus on singular results or fall victim to recency bias, but it’s too hard to ignore what Cobolli has done in recent weeks to believe he’s not value against his countryman in this matchup.

We’ll go over his extensive list of impressive wins this summer in a minute, but it’s key to have another reason to back him to avoid falling into that aforementioned recency bias trap. For me, it’s the fact that it’s not just his results that speak volumes, but the fact that his style is more suited to these courts and conditions as well.

I would’ve thought that the value in backing the Florence native would’ve evaporated by now, but it appears I’ll have at least one more chance to back him here. Our Cobolli vs Darderi prediction is for Cobolli to win.

Head on over to the expert insights page for more previews from the Cincinnati Open.

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Flavio Cobolli Recent Form

It’s been one heck of a summer so far for the 22-year-old to this point, putting together a run to the Washington final – where he was a set from the win before running out of steam – then beat Felix Auger Aliassime in his hometown before suffering a poor loss off a long week.

This week? He’s started out winning against Tommy Paul. It was a low-quality match, but even though it ended in a lengthy third set it only took just over two hours to complete. On top of those two big wins as a clear underdog, Cobolli also had a trio of underdog wins back in Washington.

He had struggled for a long time in quicker conditions, but handled them well and has adjusted well to the timing that once forced a lot of errors from his racquet.

He also hits his forehand with a bit more pace, and I think that should serve him well on quicker courts at the complex just outside of Cincinnati.

Finally, the Paul win showcased once more his grit and determination when faced with adversity. He saved a slew of match points back in America’s capital when he beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a third set tiebreak and he saved another three in that first round upset of Paul.

I don’t like to make those kinds of things cornerstones of my handicap as it’s hard to properly quantify when evaluating percentages, but that kind of tenacity is certainly nice to have in one’s back pocket as a secondary or tertiary aspect to a bet.

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Luciano Darderi Recent Form

I think the other 22-year-old Italian in this match deserves a shout for his performance on hard courts this year as well. His game is even less suited to these courts than Cobolli’s and yet he’s been competitive in a lot of his losses.

He lost to Paul in Montreal, but covered the handicap, found a big underdog win against Alejandro Tabilo here in the opening round and even in grass season on a surface even less conducive to his heavier topspin forehand, he managed to take Lorenzo Musetti to a deciding fifth set at Wimbledon.

Problem for him here is that his opponent has also been surprisingly good – and to a greater extent – has better weapons on the surface, is fine with playing Darderi’s preferred style as well, and he has more firepower.

I simply think this is a tough matchup for Darderi. Sure, he’s proven that he can handle that this season, but I certainly don’t have him winning this over 40% of the time as the market does.

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Flavio Cobolli vs Luciano Darderi H2H – Stat of the Match

Despite being the same age, preferring the same courts and coming from the same country, this is the first time these two have met at the professional level.

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