Flavio Cobolli vs Mariano Navone Prediction, Pick, Odds, H2H, July 22nd

We’ll begin the new week with a preview from the Plava Laguna Croatia Open, as we look more into a fun match between two players rising up the rankings at a young age in Flavio Cobolli vs Mariano Navone.

Navone’s win probability is around 48%, while Cobolli is favoured to win at 1.81 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Our Cobolli vs Navone prediction is for Navone to win.

Flavio Cobolli vs Mariano Navone Prediction: Navone to Prevail in Croatia

• Prediction: Navone to win
• Best Odds: 2.17
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 5:15 am UK Time on July 22nd, 2024. 

This feels like the absolute perfect stretch for someone like Navone. Post Wimbledon clay court ATP 250 tournament at sea level where conditions are very slow. This is his bread and butter.

He’s shot up the rankings on the sheer volume of wins in Challenger Tour, 250 and the weaker clay 500 tournaments to get to this point.

Though he lacks raw power and from the service line, he is probably one of the most tenacious players from the baseline in men’s tennis. The backhand is a nice weapon and the forehand has improved drastically.

He looked okay in Bastad and crumbled under pressure against one of the all-time greats in Rafael Nadal in a gruelling four hour affair.

Cobolli is a different type of opponent and when he redlines may pose problems for Navone, but the young Italian is still working on the balance between power and control and can tend to hit unforced errors. In altitude or on another surface, I’d have this pricing as a bit more accurate. In some of the slowest conditions on tour, I think Navone matches up pretty well here and I have a tough time with him being the underdog.

There are several more tennis previews available now. Head on over to the expert insights page!

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Flavio Cobolli Recent Form

Now, Cobolli wasn’t the favourite from the get-go. That has been a fairly recent development as markets have taken a position behind the world No. 48. I understand his game is probably more naturally talented, but matchups mean a lot in this sport and his error prone ways could be costly in this one.

I also wonder if there may be a bit too much emphasis on the four hour match Navone played last week, because I do think that this stylistic contrast of a match could be close and I’m not sure why the market has shifted enough to make the younger of the two up-and-comers a clear favourite.

I’m a big fan of Cobolli’s game, but in this instance I’m happy to oppose him from a betting standpoint.

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Mariano Navone Recent Form

I alluded to the Nadal loss earlier for Navone, who was clearly nervous as he neared the finish line in the second set, missing an incredible amount of balls you almost never see him miss.

Still, because he had a bye in the opening round, he reached his sixth quarterfinal of the season across the Challenger and main tour levels.

He obviously struggled on grass, but that’s a surface that rewards flatter hitting and serve-centric games. Those two things are the antithesis of his game. Not to mention, he had one career match on the surface entering this season’s grass swing.

I won’t hold those losses against him. This is a tournament that should be in his wheelhouse and should be fairly manageable in terms of the draw (though this may be one of the better fields we’ve seen in Umag, as many prepare for the Olympics that begin on Saturday).

If he makes it through this one, I’m anxious to see how he’ll be priced up in future rounds.

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Flavio Cobolli vs Mariano Navone H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two players in their early 20s. It should be an excellent barometer for them both.

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