tennis | Friday, April 26, 2024 10:52 AM

Danielle Collins vs Olga Danilovic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 26th

Jon Reid

Our final writeup of the week is once again in the WTA’s singles draw, with Danielle Collins vs Olga Danilovic closing out proceedings for the day from the Caja Magica.

Danilovic’s win probability is only 20.3% while Collins is favoured to win at 1.21 odds. The handicap is 5.5 games and the total games line is 19.5.

More tennis tips can be found for the Mutua Madrid Open over on the expert insights page.

Our Collins vs Danilovic prediction is for Collins to break Danilovic over 4.5 times & also to cover the 5.5-game spread.

Collins vs Danilovic Prediction: In Form Collins to Pounce on Weak Serve

Prediction: Collins over 4.5 breaks & Collins -5.5 Games
Best Odds: 2.10 & 2.08
Bookmaker: bet365 & Pinnacle
Stakes: 3/10 & 3/10

Odds as at 2:45 am UK Time on April 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

bet with bet365I have no idea what has happened to Danilovic’s serve in the last two years, but as a teenager, she was seen as someone who could succeed on multiple surfaces and had a decent serve that could continue to develop.

The last two seasons have seen her barely capable of winning 50% of her first-serve points. That’s bad news against someone like Collins who – much like Jelena Ostapenko in yesterday’s preview for the breaks of serve prop – does not have a second gear. It’s all aggression, all the time.

This is a big step up for Danilovic in the quality of competition, and she’s been broken three times in each of her qualifying matches and 10 times in the opening round. Throw in a better player who’s even more aggressive on return against a weaker set of both first and second serves, and I’ll gladly take the odds over evens here for the American to register five or more breaks. I’ll also take her to run away with this match, with a lopsided set or two being likely outcomes for me.

Danielle Collins Recent Form

The soon-to-be-retired American has been making the most of what she says is her last year on tour. After qualifying and making the quarterfinals in Doha at a 1000 event, she enters Madrid on a tear, having won her last 13 matches, picking up titles in Miami (another 1000) and Charleston (a 500-level tournament).

Now those were played on hard courts and quicker green clay and many will say that she’s not as strong on red clay, which is true, but she’s also been fine on the slower stuff in the past. She’s been to the French Open quarters, made another third round at Roland Garros (losing to Serena Williams, no shame in that), has a title on the surface in Palermo, made a semifinal in Budapest…you get the idea.

Throw in the fact that her groundstrokes can cut through even the slowest of surfaces and that Madrid is at altitude and I think she should be given credit for being one of the best players in the world at the moment.

Do I think she wins the entire tournament and makes it three trophies on the trot? No. I don’t think she bows out or struggles this early either though.

Olga Danilovic Recent Form

I suppose we have to credit Danilovic for getting to this point, especially since she came through qualifying to do it, meaning she’s won three matches at this venue.

She’s nearing a return to the top 100, but I think that’ll have to wait. Some may point to her wins here as a reason she may be competitive. Those people did not watch her. She was down 3-6, 0-4, and looked down and out, before coming back against a fairly middling Clara Burel who is underpowered to an extent and lacking form.

They may point to her 8-3 record on the year. I would again say apply context. There have been sloppy wins against lower-level competition and the three losses? By five games to Simona Waltert, six games to Zhuoxuan Bai (a hard courter she was favored to beat by four games), and seven games to Rebeka Masarova. I get that she’s already a huge underdog, but somehow I feel like with her struggles to hold serve and mediocre performances, she may be overvalued rather than undervalued.

Danielle Collins vs Olga Danilovic H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between these two. Not the most shocking, since they’ve played at very different levels for the last several years.

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