Danielle Collins vs Anastasia Potapova Prediction, Picks, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/22/24

The second round continues from the Miami Open on Friday as we wrap up our week of previews. For this article, let’s look at our  Collins vs Potapova prediction from the WTA. This could be one of the more entertaining women’s matches of the day. Potapova’s win probability is 39.8% while Collins is favored to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is three games and the total game line is 21.5.

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Collins vs Potapova Prediction: Collins Best in Hot, Humid Conditions in Matchup of Power Players

• Prediction: Collins -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on March 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This is why they call it a grind. Can’t seem to find more than one winner every few days at this point, but we soldier on. I’m going to continue looking for matchups that seem off relative to prices in betting markets, and that’s what I’m seeing here between Collins and Potapova.

These two are both fiery, big-hitting baseliners, but I have Collins slightly better in almost every department relative to Potapova. Her serve has been a bit stronger, her power is even more overwhelming when it’s hitting its spots and when it comes to heat and humidity, she’s spoken about how much she likes playing in these types of conditions in the past.

Three games isn’t the biggest of handicaps, and I’m good with playing her at that number. My Collins vs Potapova prediction is for Collins to cover the 3-game spread. 

Check out the Expert Insights section for more tennis previews!

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Danielle Collins Miami Open

Success in 2024 is another area in which I would say that the American has been better than Potapova, with Collins quietly putting together a fairly decent year.

She went out in the second round at the year’s first grand slam, but that was in a close third set against the world No. 1 in which she had a sizable lead.

Since then, we’ve seen Collins qualify in Abu Dhabi and win a main draw match before losing to another one of the elite in the women’s game (Elena Rybakina) and then qualify in Doha, getting all the way to the quarterfinals and losing to another strong hitter (and decent server) in Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

A quarterfinal in Austin (retired in that match) and then another loss to the world No. 1 have been her results since then, and it almost makes you wonder if the emotive American is seriously considering retirement from the sport this year or if that was just blurted out in frustration after that Australian Open loss.

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Anastasia Potapova Miami Open

As someone who has watched far too many Potapova matches this season, I can tell you, that her level – relative to where one would expect it to be – has not been good.

Even in wins against some underpowered players who would probably prefer clay courts (think Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Sara Errani), she’s had some really poor stretches, and vulnerable serves, and hit some sloppy unforced errors when dictating play. Against a fatigued Karolina Pliskova, she came out flat, and then when leading in the third set as the visibly more fit player at that moment, blew it and crashed out of the Doha draw.

Even against Jasmine Paolini in Indian Wells (her lone decent win), she needed three sets and lost the middle stanza of that one 0-6, all before losing another 0-6 set in a defeat against Marta Kostyuk.

The game has been beyond erratic this year and though her raw talent and power have bailed her out against lesser opposition, she’s been disappointingly poor in far too many matches you’d expect her to look competitive in.

Now, a fair warning, she is an incredible hitter from the baseline (though Collins is as well) and so there’s always the chance she shows up and looks good in this one, but on the balance of her performances so far this year, I’d have her as a larger underdog in this one and think the market is still weighing her past success and talent a bit too heavily.

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Collins vs  Potapova H2H – Stat of the Match

Despite these two both having spent plenty of time in the top 50 (Collins is currently just on the outside of that number looking in rankings at 53), they’ve never actually played before.

In terms of the statistical matchup, Collins has a top-15 blended hard court elo rating and her hold plus break percentage is about five percentage points higher so far in 2024. That’s despite playing some of the elite players on the women’s tour, while Potapova has avoided a lot of the top 10 and still struggled to post impressive metrics in the opening quarter of the season.

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