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tennis | Wednesday, March 15, 2023 8:38 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Indian Wells, Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Indian Wells, Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Best Bet: Wednesday, March 15th

Well, we haven’t had a run-in with bad luck in a while, but that run ended Tuesday. Looked pretty good for both wagers, with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina taking the opening set 6-3, and then Cristian Garin leading the second set 4-2 and serving at 30-15. From there, the bottom fell out of the Chilean’s game and neither the game total, nor set total managed to go over.

Wednesday’s selection comes from the match between Daniil Medvedev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

In this article:

Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Preview

March 15th, 22:00 (UK Time)

Well, it’s back to a match involving Davidovich Fokina on Wednesday. If we’re being honest, there are only a pair of men’s matches to choose from on Wednesday, but there are a few angles to like here.

First, Medvedev once again was vocal about his disdain for the courts here at Indian Wells. He’s never made it to the final few stages of the event, and that can be attributed to the court speeds.

It’s no secret that Medvedev likes quicker courts. He called himself a hard-court specialist on Tuesday during a changeover, seeing as he hates clay courts so much, and these courts don’t play a whole heck of a lot quicker.

Secondly, there are injury concerns coming into this one. The Russian took a tumble in the second set against Alexander Zverev and had to pause the match in the middle of a game for the medical timeout to have it heavily taped. After the match he was open about the pain that would likely ensue once the adrenaline wore off and that he’d need a scan to know if he could even continue on at the event.

Then there’s the fact that he’s dropped a set in each of his last two matches. One to Ilya Ivashka as a 1.02 favourite and then today against Zverev. Had the German been able to convert one of his 10-second set break point chances, there’s a strong possibility Medvedev would be out.

Now, let’s focus on Davidovich Fokina.

The Spaniard actually took a set from the world No. 6 in Rotterdam about a month ago when they met indoors in the Netherlands. Those courts weren’t fast by any means, but they were much more favourable to Medvedev and indoors, where the lack of natural conditions slowing things down can help him as well.

Finally, Davidovich Fokina has been playing some pretty decent tennis this week. His backhand has been pretty strong to this point – a key point taking on Medvedev, who is solid from that wing in his own right. He’s been able to dictate from the forehand wing as well, which should allow him to mix things up and keep Medvedev on his toes.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Best Bet

The fact that Davidovich has the explosive game style to beat just about anyone on his day (ask Novak Djokovic about his encounter with the fiery 23-year-old in Monte Carlo), along with his form this week makes me believe an upset could be in the cards.

The injury concerns, along with clear discomfort Medvedev has on this court just add to that suspicion. His dropped sets are another indication that he could be vulnerable.

Opposing someone on a 17-match win streak seems like an awful idea. When you consider how he’s looked and factor in potential health concerns, however, a long price on a talented underdog who has shown the ability to push the best in the world in the past (including Medvedev himself) doesn’t seem so daunting.

  • Selection: Over 20.5 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.87 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 2/10
  • Bonus: Medvedev to not win in straight sets at 2.37 odds with Bet365*, using 2/10 stakes & Davidovich Fokina to win at 4.90 odds with Coolbet, using 1/10 stakes.

*NOTE: This is the equivalent of Davidovich Fokina +1.5 sets and can be found under the “Player” tab on the match’s page.

Odds as at 4:00 am on March 15th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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