Football 
Horse Racing 
Mixed martial arts Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Doha, Daniil Medvedev vs Christopher O’Connell
Daniil Medvedev vs Christopher O’Connell Best Bet: Thursday, February 23rd
Well, brutal loss on one of the biggest plays of the year, that wiped out the nice gains from the women’s match. Apparently van de Zandschulp may have carried an injury into the match that I didn’t see. Sadly, instead of withdrawing, he played out the match and lost badly. Such is life with dozens of matches a day in betting on this sport.
To make matters worse, we got a lovely double break start from Jaume Munar for Tuesday’s selection, before he lost the first set, then managed to lose the second as well, despite having served to win it. Painful Wednesday from the ATP bets.
Onto Thursday, where we’ll look at another match in the Qatari capital of Doha, featuring Daniil Medvedev and Christopher O’Connell.
In this article:
Daniil Medvedev vs Christopher O’Connell Preview
February 23rd, 15:00 (UK Time)
Going back to the well to stake out a position on a heavy favourite at the ATP level, what could go wrong?
In all seriousness though, this match may actually be more lopsided than the markets are actually indicating at the moment. Perhaps not so much in the 1.07 odds for the Russian to win, but more in the total games and games handicap markets.
Even then, it seems absurd to back someone at -5.5 games in men’s tennis on a hard court.
Hear me out though. Medvedev is one of those guys that can absolutely dominate his opponents. In fact, in his eight wins in best-of-three set tennis that were completed this season, Medvedev has covered that large number seven times. The exception was Wednesday against Liam Broady, after a long week and a decent travel spot from Rotterdam. After a slow start, Medvedev took over and managed to win by five games.
Further, against players outside the top-50 in the last year, Medvedev has covered this number in six of his eight wins, while he’s kept the total to 19 games or fewer in all of them.
This is because he has a big first serve of his own, uses his wingspan to put almost all of his opponent’s serves in play, and commits so few unforced errors from the baseline, it takes both elite talent and elite game planning to beat him.
Even those who managed to take a set from him in Rotterdam failed to cover the +5.5 game handicap in Jannik Sinner and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (both far superior players to O’Connell, might I add). Why? Because even those that can stick with him and hit clean groundstrokes consistently over the course of a set eventually wear down physically.
Medvedev had a tough go of things after his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open final in 2022. He also became a father and had a lot going on off the court in that regard. It took him a while to win his first title last season, but the 2023 iteration of Medvedev looks like the player that absolutely mops the floor with inferior competition.
That’s just what the Aussie is. As impressive as winning two matches to reach this quarterfinal is, he beat an ageing Fernando Verdasco (who continues to receive wild cards, despite a level barely fit for the Challenger Tour these days) and a Roberto Bautista Agut, who isn’t close to the top of his game and has struggled for form since the Australian Open.
Outside of those wins, the Aussie is just 2-5 on the season and doesn’t possess the firepower necessary to do any damage to Medvedev.
Daniil Medvedev vs Christopher O’Connell Best Bet
The only concern here for Medvedev entering the week was regarding his motivation. He’s scheduled to play Dubai next week – a 500-level event – and won the title in Rotterdam last week – another 500-level event. Would he really look to play a third long week of tennis sandwiched between those events?
It appears as though the answer is yes, and Medvedev is here to win the title. He had a bye in the opening round, the travel to Dubai isn’t exhaustive, and he could certainly use a pair of early-season titles – something he hasn’t done much of in his career.
There could still be some lingering fatigue concerns, but with the matchup favouring Medvedev, his dominance of players that can’t hit through him, and his penchant for dispatching of lower-level opposition with ease, I’m happy to back him in a few capacities to diversify my risk to get the job done Thursday with ease.
- Selection: Daniil Medvedev to win + Under 19.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.90 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 5/10
Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on February 23rd, 2022. Odds may now differ.
More Daniil Medvedev vs Christopher O’Connell Tips
