tennis | Friday, June 23, 2023 9:01 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Halle, Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut

Jon Reid

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Best Bet: Friday, June 23rd

Well, it should’ve been a lovely day for the written-up plays, but an unfortunate choke from the women’s bet leaves us 1-1 once again. Jason Kubler did his job in pretty effective fashion in Ilkley though, winning in straight sets and frustrating Juncheng Shang with his point construction and keeping the ball nice and low, out of the kid’s optimal striking zone.

To wrap up the week on the men’s side of things, we’ll jump back up to the 500 events at tour level and preview the match between Daniil Medvedev and Roberto Bautista Agut in Halle.

In this article:

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Preview
Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Best Bet

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Preview

June 23rd, 14:00 (UK Time)

It’s a rematch from a pair of grass-court matches last season between these two, with Medvedev winning a lopsided contest at this event, while Bautista Agut avenged that loss in Mallorca in a definitive way the following week.

So what gives? Which result is more trustworthy? More on that in the next section of this article.

In terms of previewing the matchup, it’s one I love for the world No. 3. Not only have the two had polar opposite seasons in terms of form, but Bautista Agut doesn’t really have the game to trouble Medvedev when the Russian is playing his best and mentally focused.

Bautista Agut doesn’t have the power needed to just hit through Medvedev’s defences, nor does Medvedev hit the ball with pace consistently from the baseline – something Bautista Agut enjoys playing against with his counterpunching abilities.

His two wins this week are the first back-to-back wins at an event for him since the Australian Open, and even those were against Andrea Vavassori, a borderline Challenger Tour player without much grass experience, and Brandon Nakashima, who himself has had a subpar 2023 campaign.

The latter was a very close affair and Medvedev is by far and away the best player and returner he’ll have played to this point on the week.

With his struggles and Medvedev matching up so well with him even when he’s playing well, I struggle to understand why the market has been betting on Bautista Agut. This is the biggest warmup event for Wimbledon Medvedev will play, and after an early exit in the Netherlands last week to a very proficient grass courter in Adrian Mannarino, he’ll surely be looking to rack up as many grass-court wins as he can to build momentum for the year’s penultimate grand slam.

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Best Bet

I think the market moving against Medvedev here is heavily predicated on Bautista Agut beating him rather handily in Mallorca last season.

I have a few issues with this line of thought though. For starters, the 2023 version of Bautista Agut has fallen dramatically results-wise from previous years. He simply isn’t the same player right now. The other issue I have is that the week prior to Mallorca, Medvedev clobbered Bautista Agut at this very event. With Halle being an ATP 500 tournament and Mallorca being the week prior to Wimbledon and a 250, I think the former win is far more indicative of this matchup than the latter loss.

I’ll take Medvedev, who has been one of the best players this season and matches up very well with the out-of-form Spaniard at a handicap below four games.