David Goffin vs Luca Nardi Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 5th

The final preview of the day is another match from the ATP qualifying draw at the BNP Paribas Open. Let’s break down our David Goffin vs Luca Nardi prediction.

Nardi’s win probability is only 38.2% while Goffin is favoured to win at 1.44 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Our Goffin vs Nardi prediction is for Nardi to win.

In this article:

• David Goffin vs Luca Nardi Prediction
• David Goffin Recent Form
• Luca Nardi  Recent Form
• David Goffin vs Luca Nardi H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

David Goffin vs Luca Nardi Prediction

• Prediction: Nardi to win
• Best Odds: 2.62
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:00 pm UK Time on March 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m happy to back such long odds to back a young player with the ability to hit big, powerful groundstrokes against an ageing veteran who has seen his own ability to dictate play dwindle by a decent amount in the last several months.

Nardi’s weaknesses are usually most obvious when the 20-year-old is under pressure with little time to set up his groundstrokes. Not only do the courts assist with that issue in Indian Wells, but his opponent certainly no longer possesses the pace to hit through both the courts and Nardi.

As for the Belgian, his win against Maxime Cressy isn’t the most impressive, since the relatively one-dimensional American isn’t at his best in slow conditions. Needing three sets in that one isn’t the most convincing of results.

Read on for more expert insights.

David Goffin Recent Form

It’s odd to see the 33-year-old outside of the top 100, considering just how long he was a mainstay in that group of players.

Fact is, though, much like Richard Gasquet or Roberto Bautista Agut, Goffin was never an overly powerful player and as time marches on, he’s gone from someone who has enough pop to combine with his smarts to make him a top player to looking underpowered more often than not.

Goffin may be 12-6 this season, but just one of those wins has come in a main draw at the main tour level. Now, fortunately for him, he’s been pretty solid in qualifying matches, but that doesn’t change the fact that his game relies a bit too much on opposition errors and precise shotmaking.

Zizou Bergs, Gabriel Diallo, Dino Prizmic and Alejandro Moro Canas have all taken sets from him and Goffin has needed razor-thin margins to beat them or see them fall off physically. With Nardi as talented as those players and Goffin certainly outrunning the variance one would expect in close matches, I think backing the veteran in this spot would be a poor choice and may require winning a match far too close for comfort to cash a low-odds bet.

Luca Nardi Recent Form

After a slow start to the season, Nardi got things turned in the right direction by making a final in Chennai at a Challenger event.

His inconsistent results make sense given his rather inconsistent style. As I mentioned above, the struggles in quicker conditions like in Australia make sense given the fact that Nardi really hasn’t learned how to deal well with less time to set up his shots. Sure, he’s made runs in quicker conditions when his timing is locked in, but more often than not, he still goes for his aggressive shots with less time to set them up which reduces his margin for error and often leads to mistakes.

Move him onto slower courts and against a veteran with much less power than he once possessed and that weakness seems to be much more manageable.

As for his own ability to dictate, I have no doubt that he can control play and move the ball around the court, forcing Goffin into defensive shots and eventually getting that short ball he needs to put points away.

David Goffin vs Luca Nardi H2H – Stat of the Match

This battle between two men from different generations has already seen them go toe-to-toe twice. They’ve split the matches with both going three sets. The matches saw Goffin win on clay and Nardi indoors.

While I’d think that those two results would make more sense if flipped, the fact is the combination of Nardi’s improvement and Goffin’s decline have made this match pretty competitive in recent times.

I’m not one for using trends without context, but with the matchup analysis done on this one and the logic we can apply to understand just why Nardi has been so competitive against the veteran, I’m happy to say that 2.62 odds are just too long.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.