Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ben Shelton Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/7/25

This week takes us to the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters on the ATP Tour, as we get things going with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ben Shelton in a match of two explosive and talented players!

Shelton’s win probability is only about 42%, while Davidovich Fokina is favoured to win at 1.64 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Davidovich Fokina vs Shelton prediction is for Shelton to win.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ben Shelton Prediction: Shelton in with a Chance to Pull Off Upset

• Prediction: Shelton to win
• Best Odds: 2.37
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on April 7th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

It’s not likely you’ll be finding me making many bigger bets at this event this week, and this match is no different. I’m not in love with betting Shelton on clay, but the American has enough tools and the talent to eventually find success on this surface and getting him at this kind of number is one where I’ll hold my nose as I click submit.

While he lacks in some areas that do tend to be more important on clay like patience, returning and point construction, his explosive game and firepower do play anywhere and his forehand is certain to translate to the red dirt at some point.

Davidovich Fokina being fairly unreliable in his own right is another added benefit here of opposing him, but I think this is more of a buy low point on Shelton who has had a tough time finding his feet on this surface on the main tour to this point.

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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Recent Form

Despite having lost three of his last four matches, I think the start to 2025 for the 25-year-old has been a relief, with finals in Delray Beach and Acapulco already reached.

Now he’ll look to improve on his clay season from a year ago as well, with 2024 being a pretty poor year on the dirt as he went just 2-5 during this portion of the calendar, including a loss here to Sebastian Korda in which he won just three games.

There’s no questioning that his talent is probably still better than his ranking of 40th would indicate (and that’s after a pair of finals already this season), but the inability to replicate his best level for sustained periods really does tend to cost him matches and lead to too many early exits.

We’ll see if he can use the experience gap he has in his favour on this surface to avoid the upset on Monday in Monaco.

Ben Shelton Recent Form

Shelton’s recent form, whether good or bad, means very little. That’s because this price is based completely on his rather futile efforts on traditional European clay in the past. I’m not going to lie, his resume is not great on the surface.

His strengths are obviously more suited to quicker conditions and even though he has the weapons to hit through clay and is athletic with a forehand that can play with spin on occasion, he just lacks in other departments that tend to lead to success in slow conditions.

I still think getting a talent like Shelton as a sizable underdog against someone that isn’t the most reliable either is still worth a small stake here.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ben Shelton H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone match contested by these two took place back in 2023 when Davidovich Fokina managed to emerge victorious from a really close, three-set match.

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