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Tennis | Tuesday, June 11, 2024 9:36 AM

Denis Shapovalov vs Matteo Martineau Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, June 11th

Denis Shapovalov vs Matteo Martineau Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, June 11th
Independent Photo Agency / Alamy Stock Photo: Denis Shapovalov of Canada in action against Alexander Zverev of Germany

Our second preview of the day is from the other ATP 250 this week in Stuttgart, Germany. The Boss Open also has an impressive field this week. Let’s look at Denis Shapovalov vs Matteo Martineau in first-round action! Our Shapovalov vs Martineau prediction is below!

Martineau’s win probability is down below 25%, with Shapovalov the heavy favorite to win at 1.28 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Shapovalov vs Martineau Prediction: Don’t Sleep on Underdog in Quick Conditions

  • Predictions: Over 22.5 Games, Martineau +1.5 sets & Martineau to win
  • Best Odds: 1.91, 2.17 & 4.56
  • Bookmaker: bet365, Pinnacle & Pinnacle
  • Stakes: 2/10, 2/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on June 11th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

bet with bet365
Looking at players that may be undervalued for the first few weeks of the grass season, it’s hard to look past Martineau. There’s a fairly obvious reason the market is bearish on him, considering he only ever had one professional match on the surface entering this season.

That said, his game style should be comfortable on grass. He’s got a big first serve, likes to come to the net, and plays a fairly flat style. The lack of data and experience has to be factored in, but we can’t completely neglect to include his penchant for playing better on quicker courts. That is precisely what happened in the first round of qualifying when he was a massive underdog against a out-of-form Maximilian Marterer.

Throw in Shapovalov’s unreliability as a favorite, often playing down to his competition, lackluster return game, and a tournament that has seen incredibly high hold rates in the last few seasons which means we should see more close sets and close matches, and you’ve got a decent recipe for an upset. Our Shapovalov vs Martineau prediction is for Martineau to win a set & Martineau to win.

Our first preview of the day is also available on our expert insights page.

Denis Shapovalov Recent Form

After an okay clay season that saw him be pretty competitive in losses against good players and pick up some decent wins – looking good in those victories as well – it feels like Shapovalov has taken a step back lately.

He was abysmal for the vast majority of his match against Hubert Hurkacz at the French Open, getting frustrated and being far too vulnerable on serve thanks to the poor unforced errors that have cost him for years now and he was dismissed as a heavy favorite in his first grass match last week in England. Now, that was a quick shift from slow clay to the fastest surface in the sport, but it was a continuation of the error-prone tennis we saw in Paris.

I don’t think it needs to be said anymore that Shapovalov is talented and has the power, athleticism, and tools to succeed across surfaces, but he has never been able to get out of his way.

If there’s one positive for him, he’s playing on a fast surface, where points should be shorter, which means fewer chances for him to uncork unforced errors in rallies. That should lead to plenty of service holds, but without much in the way of smart, tactical tennis, I fail to see how he generates consistent pressure on return against a fairly strong server who has come through a pair of qualifying matches as an underdog and is building form.

Matteo Martineau Recent Form

Despite never having won a professional match on the quicker grass courts coming into this week and only having one match on the surface, the Frenchman has a chance for a third straight win as an underdog of over 3.00 odds on Tuesday.

He took down Marterer in a fairly efficient fashion and then upset Maxime Cressy in a match that was as close as you’d expect in a match featuring the borderline “serbot” French-American.

As I alluded to above, for those who have watched Martineau and understand his strengths, success on grass shouldn’t come as a surprise. Serve, net game, flatter big groundstrokes. All things that tend to work very well when this part of the calendar rolls around.

Perhaps he gets rolled over by Shapovalov, but that’s the beautiful part of these underdog prices. Our break-even percentage in this one is so low that one of every four wins in this price range is a profitable wager to make over a large sample size. With his game and Shapovalov’s deficiencies, I certainly think we’re looking at a win rate over one in every four times.

Denis Shapovalov vs Matteo Martineau H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first match the two have played against one another. Martineau has played primarily down on the Challenger circuit, though his 2024 campaign has been pretty strong and seen him surge into the top 200, which is why he’s able to play qualifying at ATP Tour events.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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