tennis | Friday, May 24, 2024 7:37 AM

Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, May 24th

Jon Reid

Our second preview of the day comes at the ATP 250 Gonet Geneva Open as Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac takes center stage. Our Djokovic vs Machac prediction is for the match to be done quickly.

Machac’s win probability is just above 15%, with Djokovic the big favorite to win at 1.15 odds. The handicap is five games and the total games line is 20.5.

Djokovic vs Machac Prediction: Djokovic Picking Up Steam to Beat Poor Clay Courter

Prediction: Under 20.5 Games
Best Odds: 1.94
Bookmaker: Unibet
Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on May 24th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

go with our tip at UnibetI’m not too keen on betting anything on the ATP Tour when there’s a grand slam that doesn’t just start next week but begins on Sunday. With that said, the under in this match is enticing.

I’m not big on Machac’s game on clay courts. The quicker conditions have helped him on serve so far this week, but he’s played lesser competition in general, let alone when held up against the greatest returner of all time. His flatter hitting and attempt to hit into small targets don’t exactly breed consistency and sustainable play in longer rallies either – something that is of utmost importance on this surface and against this opponent.

Now, his serve has been clicking in the thinner air and Djokovic has had a fairly slow start to each of his first two matches before finding a rhythm on return, so I wouldn’t go and bet this with a large staking, but I certainly think the world No. 1 should get his done more often than not in relatively straightforward fashion.

Read on for more expert insights.

Novak Djokovic Recent Form

It hasn’t been the best 2024 to date for the world’s top player. This is why he’s even playing this week, as he requested a wild card from the tournament organizers after an uninspiring clay season left him wanting more match play and wins.

He hasn’t dropped a set yet in Geneva, but he came close, saving four set points in the last match against Tallon Griekspoor before racing back to win nine of the final 10 games.

That all points to bets against Djokovic, so why bet on him?

Well, for starters, he’s shown us against both Yannick Hanfmann and Griekspoor that he can build into a rhythm as the match progresses. The other part? He’s had a few matches to play big servers leading in and managed to keep the totals in those two matches below the 20.5-game threshold.

Machac has been serving well, but I’m not sure his serve is any more daunting than Hanfmann’s or Griekspoor’s and he’s certainly a much tougher returner than anyone the Czech has played to this point.

Tomas Machac Recent Form

I think this run to the semis in Geneva is beneficial from a few betting perspectives. First, the inflated service stats against the Challenger caliber Nicolas Moreno de Alboran and clay newcomer Alex Michelsen have allowed us to bet under 20.5 rather than 19.5 or 20. Secondly, it appears as though it may skew his first-round price against Nuno Borges in Paris (more on that next week, barring the match taking place on Sunday).

This clay season has seen him beat the young, mercurial Juncheng Shang in Barcelona before withdrawing and then hard courter Emil Ruusuvuori in three sets in the altitude of Madrid. He was then thumped by Ben Shelton.

Those wins, along with Michelsen, Moreno de Alboran, and a physically fading Jack Draper are the only ones he’s managed this clay season.

Last year he struggled mightily even at the Challenger Tour level against somewhat middling competition. I’m not sold on some unimpressive wins (he was one game from defeat against Moreno de Alboran, lost a set 1-6 to Ruusuvuori, and was much worse than Draper in the opening set in that one before the Brit petered off) meaning he’s ready to keep things close with Djokovic.

Djokovic vs Machac H2H – Stat of the Match

Machac was able to push Djokovic to the brink in their lone match in the past. That was in Dubai in much quicker condition and on hard courts though. Should he replicate that performance, it’d be a much more impressive performance.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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