Elena Rybakina vs Victoria Azarenka Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/28/24

We’re in the final stages of the Miami Open. It’s worth noting that with the number of matches each day dwindling, so too does the betting value. Let’s look at our Rybakina vs Azarenka prediction from the WTA semifinals and see if there is anything worth wagering on. Azarenka’s win probability is 28.7% while Rybakina is favored to win at 1.35 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 21.5. Our Rybakina vs Azarenka prediction is for Rybakina to pass on the match.

Rybakina vs Azarenka Prediction: Rybakina Likely Too Strong in Matchup of Big Hitters

As we documented earlier in the week, Rybakina’s tennis has been tougher to parse so far this year. It appears as though, at the moment, the injury concerns that were apparent after her withdrawal in Dubai aren’t relevant. Especially considering she’s looked really strong in each of her last two matches.

She’s had Azarenka’s number in the past, but in quicker conditions, the former Australian Open champion has kept things close. That’s not all that surprising. Considering she possesses a strong serve, and a powerful plus-one forehand, and Rybakina isn’t the greatest of returners.

That said, the handicap is a fairly elevated four games, and I don’t think there’s any value in betting her to win by a larger margin than that. I’d make the handicap the same thing and the 21.5 games on the total is a pretty high total for a women’s tennis match. I agree with the market here and will just enjoy watching this match from an analysis and fan standpoint.

Check out the expert insights section for more previews from the Miami Open.

Elena Rybakina Recent Form

Though she’s won all four of her matches so far in South Florida, Rybakina needed a deciding set on three occasions. She almost blew a set and break lead to Madison Keys as well, before recovering just in time to finish that in straight sets.

With how dominant she has been the last year on hard courts, including her start to this year, it’s odd to see her dropping so many sets. When doing tape study, she still looks very good on court. She’s simply run into some players playing their best games, and that can happen in smaller sample sizes.

All that is to say, I wouldn’t be overly concerned with the close match against Maria Sakkari or the close second set against Keys. She dominated that one despite the relatively close scoreline).

She still has one of the best serves in the women’s game and easy power from the baseline. She may not be the best mover or returner. But, when she’s hammering the ball back at her opponents, it becomes tough for them to work it back into the outer thirds of the court.

She should come away with a rather comfortable win. She’s younger and better in almost every facet of the game than her Belarussian counterpart.

Victoria Azarenka Recent Form

It’s been a great start to the year for the 34-year-old who has worked her way back to the top 35 in the rankings. She is also going to return to the top 25 in the next edition of the rankings.

We’ve seen her power her way to the semis in Brisbane, the second week of the Australian Open, and the quarterfinals in Doha.

She’s backed that up this week with this semifinal appearance, but I haven’t been as convinced by her play. She struggled mightily to close out the opening set against Katie Boulter who has holes in her game and played an awful match. She got away with it against the underpowered Putintseva and she needed three sets to get past the talented, but erratic, Peyton Stearns.

I’m just not convinced enough by her average level, nor her peak level, relative to Rybakina.

Elena Rybakina vs Victoria Azarenka H2H – Stat of the Match

Rybakina has beaten Azarenka all three times they’ve played. But one of those wins was a few weeks ago and via retirement in a match that saw Azarenka win the opening set. Another was a four-game win on quick hard courts and the third was a more straightforward victory, but the margin was still just five games.

While I’m not surprised by the 3-0 score in Rybakina’s favor between these two, I’m also not shocked that none have been completely one-sided affairs. Between quicker courts, Azarenka’s power, and Rybakina’s decent but not great return game, four to five-game wins are what I’d expect.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.