Emil Ruusuvuori vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, July 31st

The second preview of the day comes from the ATP 500 Mubadala Citi DC Open as we take a closer look at Emil Ruusuvuori vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.

Mpetshi Perricard’s win probability is slightly lower than 50%, while Ruusuvuori is favoured to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 24.5.

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My Ruusuvuori vs Mpetshi Perricard prediction is for the big Frenchman to hold serve at a near perfect rate.

Emil Ruusuvuori vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Prediction: Conditions and Players to Make for Dull Serve Oriented Affair

• Predictions: 1st set over 12.5 games & Ruusuvuori Under 1.5 Breaks
• Best Odds: 2.75 & 1.72
• Bookmaker: Unibet & bet365
• Stakes: 2/10 & 3/10

Odds updated at 1:45 am UK Time on July 31st, 2024. 

We’ve seen tiebreaks and service holds aplenty this week so far in Washington and it isn’t really much of a surprise. This has traditionally been a tournament that plays on the quicker side of things conditions wise and with quicker courts, the heat of the American capital region’s summer only makes big serves that much more impactful.

With other comparable matchups being in the 2.50 odds range to go to a tiebreak (and still close to being value), I’m really surprised to see this one at 2.70. It has to be because of the last matchup between these two (more on that later), because all other factors point to a serve fest.

We already mentioned the courts and conditions. Then there’s the fact that these guys are both serve-centric players that enjoy keeping points short and getting cheap points behind the first serve – whether it’s with the serve itself or with the first forehand when the ball comes back.

Then there’s the fact that neither of these guys is a renowned returner. Heck, Ruusuvuori just showed us how tough it is to return in these conditions last round, when he and Borna Coric could barely find a break between them in three long sets. Now playing a bigger server and worse returner, we expect that to change? My Ruusuvuori vs Mpetshi Perricard prediction is for the big Frenchman to hold serve at a near perfect rate.

Emil Ruusuvuori Recent Form

It has been a bad few months for Ruusuvuori and his low-margin, high-risk powerful game style.

Since making the final in Hong Kong in the first week of the season and then a pair of winter quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Doha, he has struggled to come by many wins. In fact, since his retirement in Qatar, he’s won just six matches in 12 tournaments. Half of them have been in his last two – Wimbledon and the first round here.

Even then, his first round victory here was against Borna Coric, who may be one of the only players more out of form than him, and it was a gruelling battle that he barely made it through.

Considering the fact that he’s not a great point starter and really struggles to get points on return back to neutral footing, I wouldn’t be optimistic regarding his abilities in these conditions against most players. Against a server like Mpetshi Perricard? I can’t see him breaking serve at all. Luckily even if he does find one, we have the under 1.5 which gives us wiggle room.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Recent Form

Coming off a tremendous grass season that saw him reach the second week of Wimbledon as a lucky loser into the main draw, Mpetshi Perricard has to be salivating at the prospect of bettering his ranking even further in the coming months.

Currently in the top-50, the big serving Frenchman is now looking ahead to a part of the calendar that should favour his serve-centric style nicely. Washington has quicker courts (and a more manageable draw thanks to the Olympics drawing so many big names), as do Montreal and Cincinnati.

The U.S. Open will reward his serve and the Asian swing in the fall is also loaded with quick court tournaments.

Outside of two Challenger runs and a 250 quarterfinal, he doesn’t have much to defend either.

Playing a poor returner, in quick conditions, while being in form, I think he should have a field day on serve. While it won’t be easy for him on return, he should only need one or two chances to potentially find the break and end a set.

Emil Ruusuvuori vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played once, and it was one of Mpetshi Perricard’s three wins at the All England Club. That match only saw one tiebreak in four sets, and I wonder if that is playing a role in the price for the first set tiebreak here.

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