tennis | Wednesday, March 1, 2023 8:52 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Dubai, Felix Auger Aliassime vs Lorenzo Sonego

Jon Reid

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Lorenzo Sonego Best Bet: Wednesday, March 1st

I can say with confidence that Tuesday’s match will be the last in which I bet for or against Botic van de Zandschulp for a little while. Goodness, from losing to Alexandre Muller and looking hurt one week to beating one of the form players of the six months in Karen Khachanov.

Onwards we go, and Wednesday, we’ll look at the matchup featuring Felix Auger Aliassime and Lorenzo Sonego from the United Arab Emirates.

In this article:

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Lorenzo Sonego Preview
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Lorenzo Sonego Best Bet

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Lorenzo Sonego Preview

March 1st, 12:00 (UK Time)

Nice stuff from Lorenzo Sonego in his opening-round match against a tricky lefty who likes quicker conditions in Marc Andrea Huesler.

Now he’ll take on Auger Aliassime, who is playing this event, trying to get some more outdoor hard-court time in before heading to the Sunshine Double of Indian Wells and Miami (both two-week Masters 1000 events).

The Canadian garnered well-deserved chatter throughout the tennis community towards the end of 2022, after he went on an incredible run during the fall indoor court stretch of the schedule, winning three titles in a row.

His start to 2023 has been decent, but not world-beating as his odds in this matchup would suggest. He’s had his fair share of close calls in matches one would expect him to dominate this year and hasn’t made put his stamp on this part of the calendar like he did last fall (worth noting far more top players take off that part of the year, but everyone is playing in the early stages of the season).

I’m not doubting his talents, but there’s a case to be made that he’s being overvalued for dominating a section of the calendar that is gone and that isn’t necessarily the strongest in terms of field quality.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Lorenzo Sonego Best Bet

One of the few decisive wins Auger Aliassime does have in 2023 is his vanquishing of Sonego in Rotterdam.

Those conditions are the polar opposite of those found in Dubai, however.

Indoors and in medium-slow conditions, Auger Aliassime was able to use his superior hard-court prowess and baseline game to extend rallies and beat the Italian.

In quicker conditions, he’s not the best returner and becomes far more serve-oriented. Considering Sonego’s big serve and his ability to dictate and finish points on his forehand, he’ll likely be happy to oblige his opponent in a close, serve-centric matchup.

I think this over warrants being 23 or 23.5 games, so the 22.5-game total on offer is something worth backing in my books.

I’ll also take the 3.5-game head start with Sonego.