Frances Tiafoe vs Milos Raonic National Bank Open Preview and Expert Tip: Tiafoe Undervalued Ahead of Clash in Canada

Frances Tiafoe vs Milos Raonic (National Bank Open): Monday, August 7th

Nice end to the week from our tennis selections from the ATP side of things, as Alex de Minaur dominated the first and third sets on Friday to cover the handicap against Dominik Koepfer.

Monday sees another big Masters 1000 event get underway, as the men are in Toronto to see who will be crowned champion of the National Bank Open.

For our preview, let’s take a closer look at Frances Tiafoe vs Milos Raonic.

Frances Tiafoe vs Milos Raonic Expert Tip

I’m not down enough on Tiafoe based on a loss to Dan Evans (who went on to win the event in Washington) who played incredibly well to downgrade Tiafoe. The handicap here is a one break of serve margin, and as good as Raonic is on serve, Tiafoe should be closer to a two-break favourite for my money.

If Raonic is able to serve his way to covering or even winning with his hometown crowd at his back, this is a bet I’m okay with losing. This number just isn’t high enough to pass on though.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Tiafoe -2.5 Games at 1.96 with Unibet, using 4/10 stakes.

Frances Tiafoe Recent Form

It’s been a pretty strong 2023 campaign for Tiafoe. After entering the season with just one title in his career, Tiafoe has already won two this year. They were both at the 250 level, but the fact he was able to finish them off has helped squash the notion that he isn’t capable of winning big matches.

He also assisted the American team in their triumphant run down under at the United Cup and made the semifinals at Indian Wells earlier in the year.

Despite the loss to Evans, he still looked pretty strong in his opening matches last week in Washington, and he’s still a top-10 player in the rankings for a reason.

He has a strong serve, big forehand, his backhand is fairly sturdy and he has the movement and the shotmaking ability to keep himself at the top of the game.

Milos Raonic Recent Form

There is no doubt that the Canadian’s serve is still incredible, and the forehand can certainly finish points for him, but the aspects to one’s game that you’d expect to languish after so far away from the sport do appear to be a problem, at least for the moment.

The movement along the baseline and his ability to get to the spots he needs to get to are noticeably lagging. Playing someone like Miomir Kecmanovic on a surface that didn’t suit the Serbian was one thing. Tiafoe is a completely different story. Not to mention, the movement and athleticism are a major strength of his game. Not the best area to be struggling with for Raonic.

Frances Tiafoe vs Milos Raonic H2H – Stat of the Match

The only time these two played each other? This event, at this venue, back in 2018. Tiafoe actually won that match in three sets, outlasting the big Canadian. Five years on, I think it’s safe to say that Tiafoe has only improved in a big way, and Raonic isn’t the player he was then.

Stats-wise, there isn’t a whole heck of a lot to focus on in this particular matchup in terms of trying to contrast the two. That’s because Raonic has only played four matches in the last few years, due to injury and none of those came on this surface.

It’s that exact lack of data to analyse that reinforced my belief in Tiafoe being a bigger favourite than we’re seeing right now.

Odds as at 5:30 am UK Time on August 7th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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