Francisco Cerundolo vs Henri Squire Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 15th

Our second preview for Monday is from the ATP 500 Hamburg Open. We have Francisco Cerundolo vs Henri Squire.

Squire’s win probability is slightly higher than 20%, while Cerundolo is favored to win at 1. odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.

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Our Cerundolo vs Squire prediction is for Squire to be more competitive than the market believes he will be.

Francisco Cerundolo vs Henri Squire Prediction: Squire’s Improved Play on Clay Could Make Him Competitive

• Predictions: Over 21 Games & Squire to win
• Best Odds: 1.99 & 4.89
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on July 15th, 2024. 

Another strong price play here for me (aren’t they all price plays? Yes, yes they are) here. There’s no doubt that the elder Cerundolo is the better player in the match. I’m not going to try and claim Squire should be favored. It’s just a matter of the degree to which he’s favored.

Squire has proven competent this season across surfaces and against decent competition. I don’t think he’s more than a year from breaking onto the main circuit. Not to mention, it’s not like Cerundolo has been consistently crushing fields on clay courts this year.

All that is to say that I think this is closer than an 80%-20% type tilt.

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Francisco Cerundolo Recent Form

Though his season probably hasn’t lived up to expectations, Cerundolo has still had a few results on his favored clay courts to keep himself in a decent spot rankings-wise.

Yet he’s also had a slew of early exits at clay tournaments as well, with a three-match losing streak on grass entering this one also contributing to what is ultimately poor form entering this week.

With the surface playing a bit more quickly in Hamburg than most clay tournaments (though not as quickly as the tournament in Gstaad this week), Cerundolo’s heavy, pacy groundstrokes should be more impactful. The problem is, he’s playing a strong server and quick courter who has added versatility to his game and will probably also enjoy the conditions playing a bit more quickly than normal clay.

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Henri Squire Recent Form

The 23-year-old may only be ranked around No. 170 in the world, but it is his career high and it’s not a shock as to why he’s ascended as much as he has in 2024.

In previous years, my handicap on the German was that of a fairly one-dimensional server that profiled well indoors and at the lower ITF Tour or in Challenger qualifying.

Fast forward to this season and he’s added a lot more rally tolerance to his game, works the ball around the court well, still finds plenty of service holds and he’s far more athletic than his old play style would have indicated.

The result? Several deep runs at Challengers (including a title), qualifying at the French Open and making the second round and a much more respectable game than he had previously.

Is he likely to win? Of course not. Between the courts playing slightly quicker, Cerundolo’s on-and-off play this year, and his improvements though, I find it hard to believe prices like this aren’t showing some sort of value.

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Francisco Cerundolo vs Henri Squire H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two, as they typically play on different tours, with Squire still working his way up.

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