tennis | Friday, October 7, 2022 7:57 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Astana, Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut

Jon Reid

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Best Bet: Friday, October 7th

Huge win for Luciano Darderi in Brazil, as he withstands an incredibly hostile crowd, and blown match points in the second set to emerge victorious in three sets.

Back to the ATP Tour on Friday, where we’ll look at the final match of the day in Astana between Daniil Medvedev and Roberto Bautista Agut for our Friday selection on the men’s side of things.

In this article:

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Preview
Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Best Bet

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Preview

October 7th, 14:30 UK Time

It’s a much-needed strong week from Daniil Medvedev in Astana – despite the notably slower conditions – who’s been far from his best since losing the Australian Open final from two sets up to the legendary Rafael Nadal.

Despite being known as one of the elite hard-court players in the world, Medvedev has just one title this year, winning a 250 event in Mexico (though he did make a pair of finals during the grass season). The booming serve and impeccable rally tolerance and movement just haven’t been nearly as effective to this point as they were a year ago.

That said, he appears to have found his rhythm in Astana. He’s yet to drop more than three games in a set this week, and even though he’s on record several times saying he prefers quicker conditions, it’s another instance of him appearing to be playing very well in slow conditions (Los Cabos is also notoriously slow) in 2022.

In Bautista Agut, he gets a player with unquestionably strong work ethic and a very high-level tennis IQ. Unfortunately for the Spaniard, he’s a tad underpowered, doesn’t play with a ton of topspin to give Medvedev trouble and his strengths are also aspects of the game Medvedev matches up well against. To top it all off, where many players have been able to undercut Medvedev’s defensive baseline game in coming to net and really taking his time to defend away, Bautista Agut has never been that kind of guy and has always profiled as a baseline grinder himself.

I’m surprised at this pricing, as it appears that the market is finally bottoming out on Medvedev, and that presents an excellent opportunity to buy low.

Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Best Bet

To think just one year ago that you’d be able to get Daniil Medvedev to win around 1.40 against anyone not named Nadal or Djokovic on a hard court would’ve been nuts.

Fast forward to 7 October, 2022, and that’s the case, with a handicap below the key number of -4.

This is an excellent opportunity to buy low. Medvedev has found form this week, and he profiles extremely well against someone who isn’t well-positioned to capitalise on his weaknesses and doesn’t possess the requisite power to hold with ease against the always-pesky Medvedev return game.

I have this handicap at -4.5 games with the price point anywhere from 1.88 to 1.93. To get a full game at important numbers on the market is something I’m willing to back in a big way.