tennis | Friday, October 14, 2022 8:42 AM (Revised at: Friday, October 14, 2022 9:04 AM)

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Florence, Lorenzo Musetti vs Mackenzie McDonald

Jon Reid

Lorenzo Musetti vs Mackenzie McDonald Best Bet: Friday, October 14th

It’s onto Friday for our men’s best selection, as Thursday’s matchup between Lorenzo Musetti and Bernabe Zapata Miralles resulted in a loss. Tough to not only lose both the men’s and women’s selections, but to see neither competitive is disappointing. That will happen from time to time, but no fun nonetheless.

For the quarterfinals, we’ll once again go back to a match featuring the young Italian, as he takes on Mackenzie McDonald for a spot in the semifinals.

In this article:

Lorenzo Musetti vs Mackenzie McDonald Preview
Lorenzo Musetti vs Mackenzie McDonald Best Bet

Lorenzo Musetti vs Mackenzie McDonald Preview

October 14th, Time TBD

Another day, another wager opposing Musetti indoors. Despite his victory on Thursday against Zapata Miralles, I’m still not sold on him being a favourite on Friday – especially considering McDonald is a much different opponent, who actually prefers quicker courts and conditions.

It was fairly routine on serve for the young Italian on home soil on Thursday, as Zapata Miralles moved him around effectively, but didn’t quite have the pop to finish a lot of points off, allowing Musetti to win plenty of points in which he was well behind in the point.

Against the American, who plays with a much flatter ball and who has a bit more power than the Spaniard possessed (both things take time away from Musetti, who’s defending may not be nearly as impactful as a result), it’s going to be a much tougher task to pull those kinds of points out.

McDonald is also more adept at creeping in when need be to put points away if his opponent is a few feet behind the baseline and just trying to hang on in rallies. That’s something the clay-court grinder simply doesn’t do.

Finally, I’ve been impressed with McDonald’s level this week. Despite needing a comeback win against Jenson Brooksby in his opening match, he was relatively dominant in that match, with the break point conversion rates skewing the scoreboard and flattering Brooksby.

His second rounder against a strong-serving and incredibly underrated hard-court youngster in Francesco Passaro was also impressive. He won that one by four games and found his way into his fair share of games on return to boot.

Finally, McDonald has similar hard-court numbers on return to the Spaniard that couldn’t quite pull off the upset on Thursday, but his service stats are much more impressive. He wins nearly 6% more points behind his first serve and holds his service games at a rate about 8% more often.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Mackenzie McDonald Best Bet

While Musetti has managed to serve really well on hard courts this season, his return numbers have not been impressive.

Now playing a much tougher server, as well as someone who’s more comfortable than he is on the surface and benefits more from the conditions, I’m happy to back the American here to take down Musetti, who’s still overvalued in a big way indoors with that one-handed backhand being a liability and his hold + break metrics looking mediocre at best.