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tennis | Friday, September 23, 2022 8:07 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Metz, Mikael Ymer vs Stanislas Wawrinka

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Metz, Mikael Ymer vs Stanislas Wawrinka
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Mikael Ymer vs Stanislas Wawrinka Best Bet: Friday, September 23rd

It’s back to the indoor courts in Metz, France for our final selection of the week from the men’s events. After the top seed, Daniil Medvedev, was shocked by Stanislas Wawrinka on Thursday, the entire field will be eyeing the opportunity to win a title that may have seemed out of grasp earlier in the week (keep in mind, bookmakers had Medvedev as a 1.72 favourite to win in the outright markets).

Friday’s match preview will come from another match featuring Wawrinka, as he takes on Mikael Ymer in a bid to reach his first semi-final at the ATP World Tour level since 2019, when he went to the final in Antwerp, Belgium.

In this article:

Mikael Ymer vs Stanislas Wawrinka Preview

September 23rd, 17:00 UK Time

What a week for both men, as Wawrinka has now won four matches on the trot having come through qualifiers, with his most impressive being the aforementioned win (in three sets) against Medvedev.

Along with Dominic Thiem, Wawrinka is looking to continue his progression in climbing back up the ATP Tour rankings, and this week will certainly help. That said, however, there have been concerns regarding his ability to win several matches and sustain that level deep into weeks (we saw that come back to bite Thiem in his match Thursday against Hurkacz).

Taking on Ymer, that is not a potential concern you want to have. Ymer loves to make things physical, prolong points and wear his opposition down. With the court speeds not being what they once were in Metz, he’ll certainly have the chance to execute that gameplan on Friday.

Ymer has also been quite impressive in his own right this week, having reached the quarterfinals without dropping a set, sending a pair of Frenchmen packing (key to getting acclimated to a hostile crowd, which he’ll certainly face on Friday against the popular and French-speaking Swiss).

Neither Adrian Mannarino or Gregoire Barrere really troubled the Swede, and while Wawrinka does possess more power from the baseline than those two, he’ll need not only that power to last throughout the match, but also to play relatively cleanly in order to gifting Ymer too many unforced errors.

Mikael Ymer vs Stanislas Wawrinka Best Bet

Ultimately, we’re seeing a major overreaction in price here to Wawrinka taking down the Russian No. 1. For starters, that 2.5-hour match may hurt him as much as it helped, with no days off before having to take on Ymer. More importantly, though, Medvedev simply hasn’t been near the level of quality we’ve been accustomed to for months now.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a very strong player, but he’s been in a rut for some time. Between the overreaction to that win and the matchup advantage I have clearly favouring the younger Ymer, I have Ymer a strong favourite in this match, not the underdog the market has made him to be.

  • Selection: Ymer to win
  • Best Odds: 2.02 (Marathonbet)
  • Stakes: 5/10
  • Bonus: Ymer to win 2-0 at 3.21 odds with Pinnacle, using 1/10 stakes

Odds as at 09:30 am on September 22nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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