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tennis | Thursday, July 28, 2022 1:30 PM (Revised at: Monday, August 1, 2022 12:55 AM)

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Umag, Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Giulio Zeppieri

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Umag, Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Giulio Zeppieri
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Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Giulio Zeppieri Best Bet: Friday, July 29th

The quarterfinals are upon us in Umag, Croatia, and both Bernabe Zapata Miralles and young Italian Giulio Zeppieri have an incredible chance to move into an ATP World Tour semifinal.

The former has been an established Challenger Tour and ATP Tour player for quite some time now, while the latter has always shown promise, but lacked the consistency needed to really build his ranking. You may not see many talking this matchup, but it should certainly entertain – and more importantly, there’s value to be had in the betting markets.

In this article:

Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Giulio Zeppieri Preview

Friday, July 29th, Time TBD

As someone who was an early fan of Zeppieri’s abilities (though for a while it did feel as though he’d never realise that potential), it’s good to see him thriving this season and now into the quarterfinal of an ATP Tour event.

That said, this appears to be a tall task for the 20-year-old. For starters, he’s still shown that he hasn’t ironed out all the issues with inconsistencies. Prior to this week, he’d lost his last three matches on clay. All in straight sets, and all to players that one could say are around the level of Zapata Miralles (Corentin Moutet and Norbert Gombos).

Even this week, his form within each of his four matches (Zeppieri came through the qualifying draw) has seen peaks and valleys, as he’s needed to win a deciding set each time.

When that’s a weakness, you don’t want to see the rock-solid game of Zapata Miralles on the other side of the net. As someone who rarely gives away points and also moves and defends well (which should help him neutralise one of Zeppieri’s strengths), and constructs points behind his own serve in a tactically sound way, the Spaniard could pose real problems for his upstart counterpart.

While I liked Zeppieri’s chances as a similarly-priced underdog in his last match, considering Daniel Elahi Galan struggles with the same issues as him and his backhand was a vulnerability, Zapata Miralles is the opposite. Yet, Zeppieri is afforded the same respect in this match as he had in the previous match where game styles made it eminently more likely he’d win.

Finally, as alluded to earlier, the three-set matches are a concern for another reason. One has to wonder about how much is left in the tank.

Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Giulio Zeppieri Best Bet

With the matchup not looking strong for Zeppieri and the youngster having come off four consecutive three-set matches and having to take on another baseliner that can prolong points, this should be the end of his impressive run in Umag.

Elias Ymer, Pedro Cachin and Galan were all strong opponents to dispatch – especially as an underdog in all three matches – but Zapata Miralles is of another calibre.

He’s much more composed than Ymer, hasn’t packed his schedule as much as Cachin and is far more consistent than Galan.

I’ll be backing the favourite in this matchup on the handicap that should be listed closer to -4 games.

  • Selection: Zapata Miralles -3 Games
  • Odds: 1.98 (Marathon Bet)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 3:05 pm on July 28th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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