Richard Gasquet vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/1/24

Our second preview from Tuesday’s action comes from the Open de Vendée in France, as we look at Richard Gasquet vs Nikoloz Basilashvili from the ATP Challenger Tour.

Basilashvili’s win probability is around 35%, while Gasquet is favored to win at 1.43 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Our Gasquet vs Basilashvili prediction is for Basilashvili to win.

Richard Gasquet vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction: In Rhythm Underdog Dangerous Indoors as Underdog

• Prediction: Basilashvili to win
• Best Odds: 2.86
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 2:30 am UK Time on October 1st, 2024. 

It’s hard for me to pass up on the incredibly powerful, but volatile Georgian in this one. He has been a real disappointment for a while now, but in quicker conditions, not only does his power play well and allow him to end points with his serve and forehand, but it allows him to do so quickly, with the indoor hard courts being tough to defend on.

Gasquet isn’t the player he once was either. Now, the quicker courts help him in the sense that shorter points often lead to shorter games and sets, thus demanding less of him in terms of exertion, which helps at his age. It’s not all favoring the underdog.

I do think that backing Basilashvili is only wise when he’s an underdog as he is here, he’s on a surface that allows him to get things done and perhaps most importantly, when he is in rhythm. When he builds himself into form and gets a head of steam, he can be really tough to stop.

Considering how he breezed through qualifying, I’d be a tad worried if I were the wily veteran playing on home soil.

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Richard Gasquet Recent Form

Now in the twilight of his career, the 38-year-old native of southern France is back on the Challenger circuit as his best days are now firmly behind him.

Nevertheless, he still managed to come away with a trophy a few weeks ago in Cassis. One does have to wonder just how much that took out of him, though, with losses in the second round in St. Tropez and the opening round in Orleans as a large favorite.

Six of his last seven defeats have come as the favorite, as the market is still pricing him up as though he’s a main tour regular and not quite adjusting enough for his decline.

He very well could be gifted this match by erratic play from Basilashvili, but I wouldn’t put my money on it at a price that requires him to win 70% of the time to break even.

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Nikoloz Basilashvili Recent Form

As poor as Basilashvili has been for quite some time (he’s now outside the top 300 after once being inside the world’s top 20), he’s started to show signs of life lately.

At the very least he’s winning qualifying matches, and this week in particular he’s built momentum.

I’m never going to fully trust him to bring his A-game on any given day, but the weapons are there and the conditions should help him keep things close.

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Richard Gasquet vs Nikoloz Basilashvili H2H – Stat of the Match

These two are squaring off for the first time on Tuesday.

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