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Tennis | Tuesday, May 28, 2024 8:08 AM

Giulio Zeppieri vs Adrian Mannarino Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 5/28/24

Giulio Zeppieri vs Adrian Mannarino Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 5/28/24
Victor Joly / Alamy Stock Photo: Adrian Mannarino of France during the Australian Open

Tuesday brings the final day of opening-round action from Roland Garros. There’s been some excellent tennis played across Sunday’s and Monday’s action, with plenty of tense five-setters and some unlikely comebacks in both draws. Let’s hope Tuesday provides more excitement (just not in this match). My Zeppieri vs Mannarino prediction at 1.88 odds is available below!

Mannarino’s win probability is just over 24%, while Zeppieri is favored to win at 1.28 odds. The handicap is six games and the total games line is 35.

Zeppieri vs Mannarino Prediction: Oppose Frenchman Surely Looking Ahead to Grass Season

  • Prediction: Zeppieri -6 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.88
  • Bookmaker: Pinnacle
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as of May 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

There are several things I can point to that justify opposing Mannarino in this spot. First and foremost, the fact that his record since the start of 2020 on clay is 3-28. That alone would tell me that going up against a natural clay courter and being given a nearly 25% chance to win is a bit laughable.

That lacks context, however, so let’s dig more into that record. His two wins in 2023 came against Filip Krajinovic (who has been injured and fallen off the main tour) and Alexandar Lazarov in three sets (Lazarov is currently unranked and hasn’t won since April of 2023).

In 2022, his lone win was against the unpredictable, erratic, and mercurial Aslan Karatsev.

Then there’s the fact that in his losses this year, Mannarino has seen more sets end 6-0, 6-1, or 6-2 than anything closer, and two of the three he kept close were against Luciano Darderi who was starting to fatigue after a long week the week prior.

Finally, looking at the style in this all-lefty clash, Zeppieri plays with the kind of topspin that Mannarino doesn’t want to see on clay. He likes the ball low to the ground and his optimal hitting zone is much lower than he’s going to get on a high-bouncing court against someone who hits with topspin that provides a higher bounce as well. Our Zeppieri vs Mannarino prediction is for Zeppieri to move on without much fuss.

Head over to the expert insights page for Jon Reid’s other men’s preview from the French Open on Tuesday.

Giulio Zeppieri Recent Form

It’s been an odd few weeks for the talented 22-year-old. After seemingly picking up an injury in his blown lead on clay against Marc Andrea Huesler and deflating performance as a lucky loser in Turin, the Italian came to Roland Garros for qualifying with expectations lowered if that physical knock was still affecting him.

He then went on to qualify, wiping his first and third-round opponents off the court with ease and managed to come back in the second qualifying round in a match where he struggled a bit more than expected on serve.

With those performances providing reassurance and several days of rest before beginning his main draw campaign, I’m fine with trusting him here against a player who simply has very little desire when playing on a surface that he hates.

Adrian Mannarino Recent Form

Mannarino’s poor form isn’t just confined to the clay courts he despises. He may be 0-4 on the dirt with no sets won to eight lost, but he’s only won once since February when he reached the semifinals of the ATP 250 tournament in Dallas.

After a career-best 2023 season, regression appears to be hitting the crafty veteran in recent months.

I’m not expecting him to turn it around in a best-of-five match on slow, high-bouncing clay courts.

Zeppieri vs Mannarino H2H – Stat of the Match

These two haven’t met yet. Mannarino has been a journeyman but has managed to keep himself on the main tour for years. At 22, Zeppieri has had some kinks to his game that have needed to be ironed out, and has still been a Challenger Tour player for the most part.

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