Heather Watson vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 17/9/24

Qualifier Heather Watson is 3 – 0 in Seoul this week and she’ll be a resounding underdog against Ukrainian native Marta Kostyuk in the second round of the Korea Open on Tuesday. At odds reaching -435, Kostyuk is the 5-seed in this WTA500 event to kick off the Asian swing of the WTA Tour.

Watson has enjoyed an easy path to the second round but that will all change today as a +350 underdog in Seoul. The 183rd-ranked Brit has struggled against opponents ranked inside the top 50 and Kostyuk carries the 18th spot in the WTA Rankings.

EJ Garr’s Heather Watson vs Marta Kostyuk prediction points to the total so check out his tip at -116 odds below.

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Heather Watson vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction: Ukrainian Favored Big in Seoul

• Prediction: Total Under 20.5 Games
• Best Odds: -116
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 7:00 am UK Time on September 17, 2024.

According to the line setters, Heather Watson is expected to be outclassed today as a -435 is quite a high number toward a win for the 18th-ranked Ukrainian native. I agree with them in this spot and will point to the total for this match.

The correct set 2 – 0 prop is listed at -140 and I usually sense when a match has the potential to go the distance. I don’t see it happening today but the best line we can take advantage of shows up on the total to stay Under 20.5 games.

At -116, Pinnacle kept that fairly priced with marginal juice and the other factor for playing the total was the handicap line. At -5, Kostyuk would have to win by 6 to cash that ticket outright, and Watson could show up and present some issues but not enough to win a set.

I can see a 6 – 4 and 6 – 3 final result and that would take a big effort from Watson to get there. Heather barely got past 274th-ranked Lu Jiajing at 4 and 4 in the first round so let’s not let that go unnoticed.

As long as Kostyuk doesn’t get in her head and give Watson any doors to walk through with unforced errors and a poor first-serve percentage, the Ukrainian should cruise into the quarterfinals.

The total under 20.5 games is the best bet to make with enough value on the bone at -116.

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HEATHER WATSON RECENT FORM

Heather Watson is 32-years-old and the Brit is nearing the end of her playing career. This year has been spent playing mostly in ITF events and that’s not exactly going smoothly. 

Ranked 183rd on the WTA Tour, Watson only earned two wins on grass and clay combined from 9 outings although her hardcourt record is still respectable at 17 – 9.

The three wins in Seoul have all come against opponents ranked… wait, can we say they are ranked with a straight face? 274 is the best number that any of the three (ranked) players can claim from the three victories and that leaves no impression!

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MARTA KOSTYUK RECENT FORM

Marta Kostyuk has had four losses recently and you might recognize the names. A pair of defeats to Emma Navarro and a loss to Iga Swiatek brings no shame. Donna Vekic is no slouch, and the loss to Madison Keys at Wimbledon is another tough spot to find a win.

At 10 – 4 in her last 14 outings, Kostyuk hasn’t picked up a significant win outside of the upset over Sakkari at the Olympics..

Marta is 22 – 9 on hardcourts this season and has a 32 – 17 record for the campaign.

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WATSON VS KOSTYUK H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Watson and Kostyuk have only met once on the WTA Tour and it was a stop at Brisbane in 2028. Marta earned the win in Australia in three sets.

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